The Impact of Climate Risk on the External Debt Level of Developing Countries
The level of external debt will affect the stability of the national financial system,especially for the majority of developing countries.However,there are relatively few studies on how climate risks affect the level of external debt in developing countries.This paper uses the global climate risk index developed by Germanwatch in Germany to study the impact and mechanism of climate risk on the level of national external debt with a sample of developing countries from 2007 to 2019.The empirical results show that,first,climate risk will lead to a significant increase in the stock of public foreign debt and publicly guaranteed private foreign debt,and the stock of long-term foreign debt of countries;second,the quantile regression results show that extreme climate risks will significantly increase the level of national external debt;thirdly,the moderating effect model based on the sample of developing countries shows that developing countries with a good overall macro-institutional environment have lower levels of external debt when dealing with climate risks;fourthly,the mediating effect model shows that climate risk will lead to an increase in government fiscal expenditure,which in turn will lead to an increase in domestic foreign debt.
Climate riskGlobal climate risk indexLevel of national external debtMacroeconomic policyFiscal expenditure
万方数据
维普
