Analysis of the Effect of the First-house-identification Policy on the Real Estate Market:From the Perspective of Housing Transaction Crowding Out
It is of great practical significance to clearly define the effect of demand-side policy regulation on the resale housing and new housing market.This paper uses the"first-house-identification"policy which categorize one's purchase as a second home as long as the household has a mortgage record or already owns a local property to analyze the impact of relaxing this policy on the volume and price of resale housing and new housing in some second and third-tier cities in 2022.The paper further interprets the interconnections between the two sub-markets,and test the spatial crowding out effect from policy relaxation.A regression discontinuity in time model is used for the analysis.The study found that the relaxation of the"first-house-identification"policy significantly increased the transaction volume of resale homes,and mitigated the downward trend of resale house prices.However,there is a lag of 1～2 months before the policy takes effect.Unfortunately,the increased liquidity in the resale market crowded out the demand for home upgrades in the new housing market.This significantly reduced transaction volumes in large new homes and led to a decline in transaction prices for new homes in the same period.Furthermore,the relaxation of the"first-house-identification"policy in economically advanced cities had a strong crowding out effect on the housing transactions in the surrounding economically underdeveloped cities,demonstrating a sustained and significant suppressive effect on transactions of small,medium and large units in the new housing market.Therefore,it is proposed to tailor policies for individual cities to guide buyers with non-discretionary demand and those seeking to upgrade their homes to choose different paths for home purchases.
"First-house-identification"policyHousing pricesHousing transactionsCrowding effectRegression discontinuity in time model
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