Momentous Event Shocks,Economic Uncertainties and Macro-economic Fluctuations
China's economy is now undergoing a major change in a century.The public health event and other major exogenous shocks have triggered typical economic uncertainties,which have a profound impact on macro-economy.Based on the background of momentous event shocks,this paper estimates different types of economic uncertainties in different crisis periods,then introduces uncertainty shocks into DSGE model,comprehensively discusses the impact of economic uncertainties on the macro-economy and financial system,and mainly draws the following conclusions:First,financial uncertainty shocks usually cause the largest economic fluctuations,while the impact of supply and demand uncertainty shocks is relatively weak,this is because financial uncertainty shocks can amplify economic fluctuations through financial accelerator effects.Second,when there is an economic uncertainty shock,the financial system can return to the equilibrium level in a relatively short time,but the recovery of the real economy takes longer time.Third,the financial friction can amplify the impact of economic uncertainty shocks in financial system,while the price stickiness is easy to cause the economy to fall into the dilemma of inflation.In addition,the combined effect of the two will cause the economy to fall into a long-term consumption downturn.In general,the key to deal with the momentous event shocks is to do preparations in advance.On the one hand,in the financial market,supervision should be strengthened,information transparency should be strengthened,so that financial friction can be reduced.On the other hand,as for the real economy,we should give full play to the function of market itself to weaken the price stickiness effect.Improving the self-stability of the economic system and cultivating strong economic resilience is the fundamental way to weaken the impact of all kinds of uncertainty shocks.
万方数据
维普
