HEILONGJIANG'S INDUSTRIAL CARBON EMISSION SCENARIOS AND PEAKING PREDICTION BASED ON STIRPAT MODEL
Study on carbon emission factors and scenario prediction of Heilongjiang's industrial sectors is of significance to reach Heilongjiang's green low-carbon development under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization.This paper uses IPCC to estimate Heilongjiang's historical industrial carbon emission,and applies extended STIRPAT model to determine the six variables from population,economy and technology,square of GDP per capita,population scale,gross industrial production,industrial energy consumption,energy consuming efficiency and energy structure,and employes ridge regression to establish a carbon emission factor model by removing the multi-collinearity of independent variables.This paper also studies Heilongjiang's social and economic reality from economic development,population scale,energy consumption and energy consumption efficiency,and determines the increment of independent variables combined with macroscopic policies,and predicts its 2020 to 2050 Heilongjiang's appropriate industrial carbon emission under three scenarios,benchmark,low-carbon and highly-energy-consuming.Heilongjiang's industrial low-carbon development is facing a huge demand for fossil energy and insufficient energy conversion efficient.Among the six factors impacting industrial carbon emission,square of GDP per capita,gross industrial production,industrial energy consumption and energy structure promote its industrial carbon emission,of which industrial energy consumption works the most,while population scale and energy consuming efficiency play on the contrast.Heilongjiang's industrial carbon emission shows an increasing-then-decreasing evolutionary trend under the all three scenarios,varying in peaking time and heights,71.35 millions tons in 2030 under the low-carbon scenario,89.97 millions tons in 2035 under the benchmark scenario,and 123.68 millions tons in 2045 under the highly-energy-consuming scenario.This paper presents suggestions on largely adjusting industrial energy use structure,focusing on energy technical conversion and upgrade,and perfecting low-carbon green policies.