MULTI-SCENARIO DEMAND FORECAST OF RAW NICKEL IN CHINA BASED ON GRAY GM-BP NEURAL NETWORK COMPOUND MODEL
National Mineral Resources Planning(2016-2020),issued in 2016,lists nickel as strategic mineral.China is the largest nickel consumer,but insufficient in nickel resources with high dependence on external supply.Scientific forecast of raw nickel demand is of significance to secure nickel production and supply chains.This paper uses gray correlation to select China's stainless steel production,GDP per capita,electroplating market scale,urbanization rate,industrial structure,and new energy vehicle production as driving variables to forecast nickel demand under different scenarios from demand side,and combines gray GM(1,1)model with BP neural network to construct a GM-BP model based on residual minimization,which is used to forecast China's nickel demand from 2015 to 2035.This compound model is effective in forecasting non-linear sequence data,with the fitting error smaller than GM(1,1)model.China's demand for raw nickel is forecasted at 1 822.2 kt in 2025,2 720.8 kt in 2030 and 3 951.7 kt in 2035 at an annual rising rate of 4.26％in the 14th Five-Year Plan,10.54％in the 15th Five-Year Plan and 9.78％in the 16th Five-Year Plan.The rising demand trend for raw nickel will lead to a conflict between its supply and demand.China has to raise its supply capacity and decrease dependence on imports.This paper presents suggestions on upgrading stainless steel industry,optimizing processing and producing new alloy materials,and on boosting nickel exploration and development,and on diversifying import sources,and on supporting Chinese investors'overseas nickel projects.
万方数据
维普
