COUPLING COORDINATION BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION CARBON EMISSION EFFICIENCY AND ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE UNDER"DUAL CARBON"
Energy system entangles with ecosystem with mutual promotion and constraints.Advancement of coordination between carbon emission efficiency of energy consumption and ecological resilience is key to China's"dual carbon"strategy and quality economy.To further study their coupling coordination,this paper establishes an index system of carbon emission of energy consumption and ecological resilience based on China's 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities),and applies coupling coordination model,spatial autocorrelation model and GM-ARIMA model to study 2004 to 2021 coupling coordination and its temporal-spatial evolution of China's 30 provinces in their carbon emission of energy consumption and ecological resilience,and forecasts their 2022 to 2026 coupling coordination.Their mean value 2004 to 2021 carbon emission efficiency of energy consumption and ecological resilience are less than 0.6 and 0.7,classified four coupling coordination types,basic coordinated,near mis-coordinated,light mis-coordinate,moderate mis-coordinated.From time scale,their coupling coordination during 2004 to 2021 had undergone fluctuated rising,fluctuated falling,continuously falling and stably unchanging trends.Geographically,their coupling coordination has a strong positive spatial auto-correlation with their local spatial concentrating model to be average.Forecast shows that their 2022 to 2026 coupling coordination values of scenario 2 and 3 is higher than scenario 1,suggesting decreasing carbon emission intensity can not only prevent ecological destruction,but also boost the transformation and upgrade of energy consuming structures.
carbon emission efficiency of energy consumptionecological resiliencecoupling coordination modelspatiotemporal analysis
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
