URBAN SPATIAL EXPANSION FEATURE IDENTIFICATION AND FUTURE EVOLUTION SIMULATION OF CHONGQING'S DOWNTOWN
Study on simulation and drives of urban temporal-spatial evolutionary features can offer references in planning urban development and managing land resources.This paper uses urban spatial expansion identification mode,spatial expansion features measuring indicators and PLUS model to study Chongqing's 1980 to 2020 urban expansion mode in its downtown,to analyze its spatial pattern changing features and to forecast the future expanding trend with revealing its drives.During 1980 to 2020,as Chongqing had a slowly rising all-directional expansion differentiation in its downtown area,its urban fragmentation has been worsening with an expansion model of"multiple-directional,multiple extended wings and multiple banded"and a pattern of"west-fast-east-slow,southwest-northeast extension".Chongqing's downtown had experienced a rising-then-falling trend in its expansion speed and intensity,with its urban expanding direction from inner and marginal filling to exterior and urban morphology from compacting to loose,fragmentated and irregular distribution during the study period.Chongqing's downtown will expand to its vicinity in 2030,slowly,of much differentiated expanding directions,mostly influenced by economy and planning policies.Topography,GDP,distance to waters/roads,and development planning are the major drives in impacting its expanding speed.Limited by geographic conditions,under"multiple-directional,multiple-banded"urban pattern,social economic factors mainly on economy,transportation and policies are the key drives for its downtown's spatial expansion.This paper presents suggestions on fulfilling functions of economic strategy,improving economic cooperation with surrounding cities,boosting investments on infrastructure,reinforcing radiation of center city to upgrade urban internal structure and to lead the regional development.Chongqing shall incorporate eco-environmental protection into the future planning,including ecological protection areas,natural protection areas and farmland protection areas,increase resources use efficiency and plan a coordinated sustainability of city and environment.
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