调研分析国际浮式生产储油卸油装置(Floating Production Storage and Offloading,FPSO)的市场需求现状,提出国际FPSO市场需求的预测方法.采用熵值法、人工神经网络法、随机森林回归、ADABOOST回归、ARMA模型等多算法融合的方法,对国际FPSO订单进行组合预测,结果表明国际FPSO市场需求在2025年、2030年、2035年的需求量分别为9、10与12艘,可见国际FPSO市场需求在未来十多年间稳步回升.我国船企应密切关注原油价格变化对FPSO市场需求的影响,积极采用新产品技术,同时减少碳排放,提高市场份额.
Abstract
This paper studies the market demands of Floating Production Storage and Offloading(FPSO),presents a way to forecast the global FPSO market demands.By means of a method integrated with entropy,artificial neural network,random forest regression,ADABOOST regression,and ARMA model,this paper forecasts the global FPSO orders with the results showing that FPSO needs 9 ships in 2025,10 in 2030 and 12 in 2035,suggesting a stable rising global FPSO market demand in the future ten years.China's ship manufacturers should pay close attention on the impacts of crude oil price on FPSO market demands and use new technologies in reducing carbon emission and increasing market shares.
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