Objective To analyze the incidence trend of hepatitis B in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021,and to predict the incidence rate of hepatitis B in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2026.Methods The data of incidence rate of hepatitis B in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021 were extracted from the China Health Statistical Yearbook(2011/2012/2013/2014/2015/2016/2017/2018/2019/2020/2021/2022 version).The original data were collated by Excel 2013,and GM(1,1)model was constructed and used for prediction.SPSS 22.0 was used for statistical analysis,and graphpad 9.0 was used for the display of visual pictures.P＜0.05 was considered statistically significant Results The incidence rate of hepatitis B in Shandong Province increased from 29.86/105 in 2010 to 75.27/105 in 2021,with an annual change percentage of 9.20％,and the upward trend was statistically significant(t=11.725,P＜0.001).GM(1,1)model predicted that the incidence rate of hepatitis B in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2026 would be 88.44/105,95.45/105,103.02/105,111.19/105 and 120.00/105,respectively.Conclusions The incidence rate of hepatitis B in Shandong Province showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2021,and the prevention and control forms were severe.It is suggested to carry out research on hepatitis B risk factors,expand the scope of hepatitis B immunization program,strengthen health education and publicity,carry out research among key populations and other comprehensive measures to reduce the incidence rate of hepatitis B in Shandong Province.
万方数据
