This article summarized the information of aircraft fire accidents in the past decade.Then an aircraft fire accident Tree(FTA)model was constructed.Based on the FTA,a bayesian network(BN)model for civil aircraft fire accidents was constructed.Four authoritative experts scored the fuzzy language values of fire risk factors.The left and right fuzzy sorting method was used to calculate the fuzzy possible values.And then the prior probabilities of each node in the BN was obtained.Based on the BN model,a risk analysis of civil aviation fire accidents was conducted.The results show that security checks and safety training have the greatest impact on aircraft fire accidents,followed by air impact,mechanical failures have the least impact,and the control of combustibles is the most sensitive node.Maintenance errors lead to uncontrolled fires,and fire fighting is not timely due to the occurrence of combustion and the lack or failure of fire extinguishers,and the failure to extinguish are the two critical paths of aircraft fire accidents.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
