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基于未确知测度理论的矿井巷道安全风险评价分析

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矿井巷道的安全性是保证矿山掘进与煤炭开采的重要保障之一,对其进行安全风险评价也是工程开展过程中不可或缺的关键环节.过往的评价方法往往更依赖于主观的定性分析,缺乏定量以及对各影响因素之间的主次关系考虑.基于此,从人、机、环、管4个方面出发,选取其中17个关键影响因素,运用未确知测度理论,科学建立了矿井巷道的安全评价体系;利用熵权法计算各影响因素的权重,再依据置信度识别准则对结果进行科学判定;最终对结果进行重要性排序,构建基于未确知测度理论的矿井巷道安全风险评价方法.结合工程实例分析结果表明,该评价方法客观全面,能够准确判别影响巷道安全状态的关键因素,与工程实际情况基本相符,证明该方法具有较高的准确性以及实际应用价值,可用于类似条件矿井巷道的综合安全评价.
Evaluation and analysis of mine roadway safety risk based on unascertained measure theory
The safety of mine roadway is one of the important guarantees to ensure mine excavation and coal mining,so its safety risk as-sessment is also an indispensable key link in the process of project development.Previous evaluation methods often rely more on subjec-tive qualitative analysis,lack of quantitative and the consideration of the primary and secondary relationship between various influencing factors.Based on this,starting from the four aspects of man-machine loop,17 key influencing factors were selected and the unascertained measurement theory was used to scientifically establish the safety evaluation system of mine roadway.The entropy weight method was used to calculate the weights of each influencing factor,and then the results were scientifically judged according to the confidence level recognition criteria,and the importance of the results was finally ranked.The safety risk assessment method of mine roadway based on unascertained measure theory was constructed.Combined with the analysis of engineering examples,the results show that the evaluation method is objective and comprehensive,can accurately identify the key factors affecting the safety state of the roadway,and is basically consistent with the actual engineering situation,which proves that the method has high accuracy and practical application value,and can be used for the comprehensive safety evaluation of the mine roadway under similar conditions.

mine roadwayunascertained measureconfidence levelsafety evaluation

何尚森、刘瑞鹏、余宏、宋乐

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中国煤炭工业协会咨询中心,北京 100013

宁夏王洼煤业有限公司王洼煤矿,宁夏固原 756505

矿井巷道 未确知测度 置信度 安全评价

国家自然科学基金项目

52074296

2024

能源与环保
河南省煤炭科学研究院有限公司 河南省煤炭学会

能源与环保

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.221
ISSN:1003-0506
年,卷(期):2024.46(6)
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