Uncertainty analysis and risk response research of coal mine dynamic forecast water inflow
Taking Nalinghe No.2 Coal Mine as an example,based on the hydrogeological conditions of Nalinghe No.2 Coal Mine,a rea-sonable conceptual model and numerical model of coal mine groundwater were constructed.The prediction scheme of coal mine water in-flow was prepared,and the dynamic water inflow of coal mine was predicted by large well method,water collection gallery method and numerical method respectively.According to the calculation results of the three methods,when the coal mine working face was mined to an elevation of 506.95 m in the 3-1 upper coal seam,the predicted dynamic water inflow of the mine was 24 831.66 m3/d,8 318.44 m3/d,and 13 823.93 m3/d,respectively;when the 3-1 upper coal seam working face and the 3-1 coal seam working face were simulta-neously mined,the predicted dynamic water inflow of the mine was 50 814.29 m3/d,17 177.66 m3/d,and 27 662.51 m3/d,respective-ly.In addition,to further ensure the accuracy of the analysis results,uncertainty analysis of dynamic prediction of water inflow in coal mines was carried out from the perspectives of permeability coefficient,water storage coefficient,etc.Based on the analysis results,it was confirmed that permeability coefficient is the main influencing factor of the prediction results.This article introduced commonly used risk warning and forecasting methods such as water source identification,accident precursors,and risk prediction for mine water inrush risks.It also explained risk avoidance measures for mining from two perspectives:improving safety supervision and management systems and strengthening employee safety technical training.
dynamic water inflowuncertainty analysisrisk responsenumerical method
万方数据
维普
