Keeping the People's Rice Bowl Filled with Domestically Grown Grain:Feasibility and Practical Path
Utilizing a System Dynamics model and GM(1,1)grey model,this study conducted a dynamic assessment of the feasibility of"Chinese bowls to be filled with Chinese grain".The findings of this analysis yield the following insights:China's overall food security in the future is projected to be robust,but there exists a substantial risk associated with the structural supply of food,specifically with a pronounced shortfall in the availability of animal feed grains;China exhibits significant potential for increased consumption of aquatic products,eggs,and dairy,but tension and imbalance in the supply and demand for pork,and a shortage in domestic vegetable oil supply.Besides,the fat intake of Chinese residents significantly exceeds the standard,and a large import of fat is still needed.To address these challenges,strict safeguards for arable land security should be implemented.Farmers'enthusiasm for grain production should be mobilized by giving full play to the guiding role of policies,and breakthroughs in agricultural technology should be promoted to enhance food production stability and supply capacity.Simultaneously,efforts should be made to improve the dietary structure of Chinese residents,and livestock feed ratios,in order to reduce excessive demand for feed grains and vegetable oil.
System Dynamicsrice bowls of Chinese peopledomestically grown graingrain variety
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
