首页|基于DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC法的齐鲁民俗体育可持续发展关键影响因素

基于DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC法的齐鲁民俗体育可持续发展关键影响因素

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为保证民俗体育长效健康发展,借助德尔菲法提取出一个包含技术、环境和个体3 个维度的影响因素集,采用DEMATEL法对民俗体育可持续发展各影响因素间的逻辑关系进行定量分析;运用ISM对各因素间的层次结构及作用机理进行有序探索,构建多层递阶结构模型;再通过MICMAC进一步分析层级关系与驱动-依赖关系的属性特征.结果表明,民俗体育的可持续发展受数字化技术、设施条件和文化认同等12 个因素的影响,可划分为自治、依赖、关联和独立4 类要素,5 个层级,并明确各因素的属性特征.从中心度和原因度分析,数智化创新属于关键影响因素,对民俗体育的可持续发展起着决定性作用.
Key Influencing Factors of Sustainable Development of Qilu Folk Sports Based on DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC Method
The sustainable development of folk sports is influenced by many factors such as government policy,social orienta-tion and public participation.In order to ensure its long-term and healthy development,a set of influencing factors including technology,environment and individual is extracted by Delphi method.DEMATEL method is used to quantitatively analyze the logical relationship among the influencing factors of the sustainable development of folk sports.The hierarchical structure and mechanism of each factor are explored orderly by using ISM,and the multi-layer hierarchical structure model is built.Then MICMAC is used to further analyze the attributes of the hierarchical relationship and the driver-dependency relationship.The re-sults show that the sustainable development of folk sports is affected by 12 factors such as digital technology,facility conditions and cultural identity,which can be divided into 4 categories of autonomy,dependence,correlation and independence,and 5 levels,and the attribute characteristics of each factor are clearly defined.From the analysis of center degree and reason degree,the innovation of number intelligence is the key influencing factor,which plays a decisive role in the sustainable development of folk sports.

folk sportsustainable developmentDEMATEL-ISM-MICMACkey influencing factor

杜晓洁、周君华、赵宸磊

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鲁东大学 体育学院,山东 烟台 264025

民俗体育 可持续发展 DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC 关键影响因素

山东省青少年教育科学规划项目大学生学术课题

24BSH479

2024

枣庄学院学报
枣庄学院

枣庄学院学报

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.219
ISSN:1004-7077
年,卷(期):2024.41(5)