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Short-Term Forecasting of Urban Water Consumption Based on the Largest Lyapunov Exponent
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An approach for short-term forecasting of municipal water consumption was presented based on the largest Lyapunov exponent of chaos theory. The chaotic characteristics of time series of urban water consumption were examined by means of the largest Lyapunov exponent and correlation dimension. By using the largest Lyapunov exponent a short-term forecasting model for urban water consumption was developed, which was compared with the artificial neural network (ANN) approach in a case study. The result indicates that the model based on the largest Lyapunov exponent has higher prediction precision and forecasting stability than the ANN method, and its forecasting mean relative error is 9.6% within its maximum predictable time scale while it is 60.6% beyond the scale.
largest lyapunov exponentchaosurban water consumptionshort-term forecasting
ZHAO Peng、ZHANG Hongwei
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School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
NETL
NSTL
