首页|Forecasting solar radiation on an hourly time scale using a Coupled AutoRegressive and Dynamical System (CARDS) model

Forecasting solar radiation on an hourly time scale using a Coupled AutoRegressive and Dynamical System (CARDS) model

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The trends of solar radiation are not easy to capture and become especially hard to predict when weather conditions change dramatically, such as with clouds blocking the sun. At present, the better performing methods to forecast solar radiation are time series methods, artificial neural networks and stochastic models. This paper will describe a new and efficient method capable of forecasting 1-h ahead solar radiation during cloudy days. The method combines an autoregressive (AR) model with a dynamical system model. In addition, the difference of solar radiation values at present and lag one time step is used as a correction to a predicted value, improving the forecasting accuracy by 30% compared to models without this correction.

solar radiation forecastingtime series methodlucheroni modelcombination modelfixed componentCARDS model

Jing Huang、Malgorzata Korolkiewicz、Manju Agrawal、John Boland

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School of Mathematics and Statistics and Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Boulevard, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095, Australia

2013

Solar energy

Solar energy

EISCI
ISSN:0038-092X
年,卷(期):2013.87(Jan.)
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