首页|Disentangling the effect of measures, variants, and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 infections in England: a dynamic intensity model

Disentangling the effect of measures, variants, and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 infections in England: a dynamic intensity model

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  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • Oxford Univ Press
In this paper, we estimate the path of daily SARS-CoV-2 infections in England from the beginning of the pandemic until the end of 2021. We employ a dynamic intensity model, where the mean intensity conditional on the past depends both on past intensity of infections and past realized infections. The model parameters are time-varying, and we employ a multiplicative specification along with logistic transition functions to disentangle the time-varying effects of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions, of different variants, and of protection (waning) of vaccines/boosters. Our model results indicate that earlier interventions and vaccinations are key to containing an infection wave. We consider several scenarios that account for more infectious variants and different protection levels of vaccines/boosters. These scenarios suggest that, as vaccine protection wanes, containing a new wave in infections and an associated increase in hospitalizations in the near future may require further booster campaigns and/or nonpharmaceutical interventions.

COVID-19Bayesian Hamiltonian Monte CarloNPIvaccinesboostervariants of concernOmicron

OTILIA BOLDEA、ADRIANA CORNEA-MADEIRA、JOAO MADEIRA

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Department of Econometrics and OR, Tilburg University, Warandelaan 2, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands

ISEG - Universidade de Lisboa and CEMAPRE Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 Lisboa, Portugal

Department of Economics and BRU-Business Research Unit, ISCTE-University Institute of Lisbon, Av. das Forcas Armadas, 1649-026 Lisboa, Portugal

2023

10.1093/ectj/utad004

The econometrics journal

The econometrics journal

ISSN：1368-4221
年,卷(期)：2023.26(3)
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