摘要
地基沉降预测对于堤防围海造地的再利用和管理具有重要意义，因为堤防围海造地存在多层不同物理力学性质的复合地层。针对我国东部黄海复合地层吹填土地基沉降分析，结合双曲线模型、指数曲线模型和Asaoka模型，提出了一种加权组合模型。首先，利用平均绝对误差(MAE)的倒数平方法计算加权组合模型的权重系数其次，利用绝对误差、MAE、均方根误差和平均绝对百分比误差对不同模型的沉降预测结果进行评价。最后，从多层耦合的角度分析了复合地层中吹填地基的沉降机理，讨论了不同模型对复合地层中吹填地基沉降预测的适应性。结果表明，加权组合模型的沉降历时预测曲线与实测沉降历时曲线吻合良好，预测性能优于双曲线模型、指数曲线模型和Asaoka模型。加权组合模型的MAE比指数曲线模型低75.7%，比双曲模型低90.2%，比Asaoka模型低70%。该模型为类似复合地层中再生地基沉降预测提供了一种新的途径。
Abstract
Foundation settlement prediction is significant to the reuse and management of the reclaimed land from the sea by dykes where composite stratum of many strata with different physical and mechanical properties is encountered. Toward the foundation settlement analysis of reclaimed land in the Yellow Sea composite stratum in eastern China, a weighted-combination model is proposed in this paper combining the hyperbolic model, exponential curve model, and Asaoka model. First, the weight coefficient of the weighted-combination model is calculated by the reciprocal square method of average absolute error (MAE). Second, the settlement prediction results of different models are evaluated by the absolute error, MAE, root-mean-square error, and mean absolute percentage error. Finally, the settlement mechanism of reclaimed foundations in a composite stratum is analyzed from the point of view of the multistratum coupling, and the adaptability of different models to the settlement prediction of reclaimed foundations in a composite stratum is discussed. The results show that the predicted settlement duration curves of the weighted-combined model are in good agreement with the measured settlement duration curves, and the prediction performance is better than that of the hyperbolic model, exponential curve model, and Asaoka model. The MAE of the weighted-combination model is 75.7% lower than that of the exponential curve model, 90.2% lower than that of the hyperbolic model, and 70% lower than that of the Asaoka model. This model provides a new way to predict the settlement of reclaimed foundations in a similar composite stratum.
NETL
NSTL
Wiley