摘要
高速公路互通式立交区碰撞事故是我国的一个重大问题，对我国的经济和社会构成重大挑战。利用京沪高速公路三年的碰撞数据，本研究调查了立交区和非立交区碰撞特征的可转移性和异质性，以及影响伤害严重程度因素的时间变化。该研究采用了四系列随机参数logit模型来估计严重伤害、轻微伤害和无伤害的三种潜在车祸伤害严重程度结果（基于每次车祸中受伤最严重的个人），并确定关键决定因素，包括司机、车辆、道路、环境、时间、交通和车祸属性。利用似然比检验和样本外预测来评估碰撞区域特征的时间稳定性和可转移性。此外，还计算了各种决定因素的边际效应，以了解它们在不同年份和崩溃类型中的影响。超速、单车、AADT（年平均日交通量）、Lsmin和其他碰撞类型指标等关键变量被确定为显著的随机参数，表明平均值和方差的异质性。在交换和非交换碰撞之间观察到明显的区别，表明不可转移，最重要的指标显示时间不稳定。此外，多车辆参与、公交车和夜间条件等因素被确定为风险指标，明显增加了严重伤害的可能性。这些见解对于高速公路设计者和决策者来说是无价的，有助于理解各种因素的作用机制。这项研究表明，更严格的执法措施对于防止随机改变车道至关重要，特别是在交汇处出入口。此外，应实施有效的管理战略和执法对策，以减轻互通式和非互通式地区的碰撞伤害结果。
Abstract
Expressway crashes in interchange areas are a critical concern in China, posing significant economic and social challenges. Utilizing three years of crash data from the Beijing–Shanghai Expressway, this study investigates the transferability and heterogeneity of crash characteristics between interchange and noninterchange areas, as well as the temporal shifts in factors influencing injury severity levels. The research employs four series of random parameters logit models to estimate three potential crash injury severity outcomes of severe injury, minor injury, and no injury (based on the most severely injured individual in each crash) and to identify key determinants, encompassing driver, vehicle, roadway, environmental, temporal, traffic, and crash attributes. Likelihood ratio tests and out-of-sample predictions are utilized to assess the temporal stability and transferability of crash area characteristics. Additionally, the marginal effects of various determinants are calculated to understand their influence across different year periods and crash types. Key variables such as overspeed, single-vehicle, AADT (annual average daily traffic volume), Lsmin, and other crash type indicators are identified as significant random parameters, demonstrating heterogeneity in means and variances. Notable distinctions are observed between interchange and noninterchange crashes, indicating nontransferability, with most significant indicators revealing temporal instabilities. Furthermore, factors such as multivehicle involvement, buses, and nighttime conditions are identified as risk indicators, notably increasing the likelihood of severe injuries. These insights are invaluable for expressway designers and decision-makers, aiding in understanding the contributing mechanisms of various elements. This study suggests that stricter enforcement measures are crucial to prevent random lane changes, particularly at interchange entrances and exits. Additionally, effective management strategies and enforcement countermeasures should be implemented to mitigate crash injury outcomes in both interchange and noninterchange areas.
NETL
NSTL
Wiley-Hindawi