首页|Spatiotemporal correlations and driving factors of multiple drought in Central Asia
Spatiotemporal correlations and driving factors of multiple drought in Central Asia
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NETL
NSTL
Elsevier
The intensification of global change and the escalation of anthropogenic activities have significantly exacerbated drought severity in Central Asia (CA), thereby posing critical challenges to the sustainability of local ecosystems and socioeconomic development. Although current research primarily focuses on changes in drought trends, a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal correlations between regional climatic droughts and their underlying driving factors remains notably absent. Therefore, this study systematically examined the spatiotemporal correlations and driving factors of climatic droughts in CA from 1948 to 2022. The results indicated that: (1) over the past approximately 80 years, significant increases in both the intensity (i.e., rising by 174 %) and spatial extent (i.e., expanding by 138.4 %) of drought events were observed in CA, highlighting the escalating severity and widespread impact of this climatic phenomenon, (2) in 74.5 % of CA, meteorological drought exhibited a significant Granger causal relationship with hydrological drought, marked by a substantial influence (F > 1), while hydrological drought significantly impacted agricultural drought across nearly the entire region, and (3) soil moisture (SM) predominantly influences hydrological drought, with regions exhibiting a relative importance degree (RID) above 0.3 covering 71.4 % of CA. Conversely, snow water equivalent and evapotranspiration significantly impact meteorological drought across 50.4 % of CA. The significance of this study lies in its provision of a scientific basis for drought risk assessment and the formulation of climate adaptation policies in CA.
Central AsiaMeteorological droughtHydrological droughtGranger causality analysisRandom forestCLIMATE-CHANGESOIL-MOISTURERIVER-BASINRECONSTRUCTIONVEGETATIONIMPACTSTRENDS
NETL
NSTL
Elsevier
