首页|Skill comparisons and physical drivers of multi-decadal rapid warming of Indian Ocean in CMIP6 models
Skill comparisons and physical drivers of multi-decadal rapid warming of Indian Ocean in CMIP6 models
扫码查看
点击上方二维码区域，可以放大扫码查看
原文链接
NETL
NSTL
Springer Nature
Abstract Observations indicate that the upper-layer Indian Ocean (IO) has experienced multi-decadal rapid warming with a rate of approximately 0.18 °C/decade since the early 1990s. The ability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to reproduce this rapid warming is essential but not well assessed, and the underlying physical drivers remain unclear. In this study, we examine the performance of 17 CMIP6 models in simulating this observed rapid warming in the IO, investigate the physical drivers responsible for the IO warming, and explore the origin of the biases in the CMIP6 models. We find that the IO warming in a majority of the CMIP6 models is stronger than that in observations, and the warming patterns in these models display significant disparities compared to observations. Four regions are important in determining the ability of CMIP6 models in reproducing the observed warming pattern. The CMIP6 models basically overestimate the warming trends in the western and northwestern IO but underestimate the warming trends in the eastern tropical and southern IO. Model skill is quantified using the Taylor diagram and Taylor skill score. It seems that the sea surface heat flux accounts for the rapid IO warming while the heat advection damps the warming. We suggest that the heat advection, especially the vertical heat advection, plays a crucial role in determining the inter-model spread and bias relative to observations, and the enhanced zonal heat transport associated with the Indonesian Throughflow and the decreased vertical heat advection led to the rapider warming after the 1990s than before.
Indian OceanMulti-decadal warmingCMIP6Global warming
Zhanqing Zhang、Xinying Guo、Shangmin Long、Huan Jiang、Jiayi Zhang、Shihan Li、Xiaohua Li、Jie Ma、Shijian Hu
展开 >
Chinese Academy of Sciences||Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center||University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Hohai University||Hohai University
Chinese Academy of Sciences||Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center
Chinese Academy of Sciences||Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center||University of Chinese Academy of Sciences||Hohai University||Laoshan Laboratory||Hohai University
NETL
NSTL
Springer Nature
