首页|Impact of driving factors on drought propagation: perspectives on rainfall deficit and excessive evaporation
Impact of driving factors on drought propagation: perspectives on rainfall deficit and excessive evaporation
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Springer Nature
Abstract Current research lacks studies on the distinct risk mechanisms associated with different types of meteorological droughts, as well as the threshold values that trigger subsequent drought events. This study aims to address this gap by investigating the propagation processes of rainfall deficit-induced and excessive evaporation-induced meteorological droughts, particularly in their impacts on hydrology and agriculture in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) from 1982 to 2020. This is the first study to construct response relationship models for single-factor and multi-factor-driven characteristics of two distinct types of drought events by employing a spatiotemporal matching method for events with causal relationships. Using multidimensional Copula functions, the models were developed to capture the complex dynamics of these drought events. Additionally, Bayesian networks were integrated to calculate the threshold values that trigger varying levels of hydrological and agricultural droughts resulting from two types of meteorological droughts. The results found that the rainfall-deficit-induced meteorological droughts was considered more crucial for triggering moderate and severe hydrological droughts. By evaluating the combined impacts of multiple initiating drought characteristics, this study measured the conditional probabilities for triggering moderate, severe, and extreme hydrological and agricultural drought events. The findings indicated that when the target drought manifests as hydrological drought, the risk of rainfall deficit-induced meteorological drought transitioning to hydrological droughts is higher in the MLYR compared to excessive evaporation-induced meteorological droughts. Conversely, when the target drought is agricultural, the risk is higher for excessive evaporation-induced meteorological droughts. This study is important for understanding the disaster-causing mechanism and disaster-causing capacity of different types of meteorological droughts.
Middle and Lower reaches of the Yangtze RiverDrought propagationCopulaDrought evolutionResponse relationship
Shuang Zhu、Wenying Huang、Yan Wei、Jun Guo、Hui Qin
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Huazhong University of Science and Technology||Huazhong University of Science and Technology
China University of Geosciences||China University of Geosciences
NETL
NSTL
Springer Nature
