首页|Extreme precipitation analysis in Central Asia based on the two-step kappa approach under global change
Extreme precipitation analysis in Central Asia based on the two-step kappa approach under global change
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NETL
NSTL
Springer Nature
Abstract The complexity of terrain and climate, coupled with constraints in materials collection and analysis methods, has resulted in a lack of systematic research on extreme precipitation events in Central Asia (CA), which poses challenges to the sustainable development of water resource systems and emergency management. Hence, this study explored the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity features of extreme precipitation events in CA employing a two-step Kappa approach integrated with generalized Pareto distributions (GPD), binomial distributions, and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data. The results show that: (1) there were significant spatial distribution differences in parameters estimated by the two-step Kappa approach of extreme precipitation at different time scales in CA, with the southeastern mountains performing exceptional behavior and showing a greater susceptibility to extreme precipitation events; (2) extreme precipitation exhibited an inverse relationship with event rarity, characterized by high frequency and low intensity in northern and central CA, while there was low frequency and high intensity (e.g., 99% of extreme precipitation events exceeding 300 mm per day) in the eastern plateau; (3) extreme precipitation in CA exhibited seasonal differences, with the widest summer precipitation range in the northern Kazakhstan, yet predominantly concentrated in the southeastern CA in other seasons. The study is significant for gaining deeper insights into the spatial distribution, future trends, and water risk emergency management of extreme precipitation events in CA.
Central AsiaExtreme precipitationTwo-step Kappa approachGeneralized Pareto distributionsPOT
NETL
NSTL
Springer Nature
