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Global Sensitivity Analysis for Integrated Heat and Electricity Energy System

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  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • IEEE
Although global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is gaining increasing popularity in power systems due to its ability to measure the importance of uncertain inputs, it has not been explored in the integrated energy system (IES) in the existing literature. Indeed, when coupled multi-energy systems (e.g., heating networks) are considered, the power system operation states are inevitably altered. Accordingly, its associated GSA, which relies on Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), becomes even more computationally prohibitive since it not only increases the model complexity but also faces large uncertainties. To address these issues, this paper proposes a double-loop generalized unscented transform (GenUT)-based strategy that, for the first time, explores the GSA in the IES while simultaneously achieving high computing efficiency and accuracy. More specifically, we first propose a GenUT method that can propagate the moment information of correlated input variables following different types of probability distributions in the IES. We further design a double-loop sampling scheme for GenUT to evaluate the GSA for correlated uncertainties in a cost-effective manner. The simulations of multiple heat- and power-coupled IESs reveal the excellent performance of the proposed method.

UncertaintyResistance heatingCouplingsComputational modelingWater heatingSensitivity analysisMathematical modelsHeat pumpsCogenerationInput variables

Yibo Li、Yijun Xu、Shuai Yao、Shuai Lu、Wei Gu、Lamine Mili、Mert Korkali

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Department of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing, China

School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, U.K.

Bradley Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Virginia Tech Northern Virginia Center, Falls Church, VA, USA

Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA

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2025

10.1109/TPWRS.2024.3500214

IEEE transactions on power systems: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers transactions on power systems

IEEE transactions on power systems: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers transactions on power systems

ISSN：
年,卷(期)：2025.40(3)
  • 47