首页|Long-Run Determinants of Nigerian Inflation Rate: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach
Long-Run Determinants of Nigerian Inflation Rate: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach
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Inflation is a problem in all facets of life and all economic entities. The government of any nation is concerned with ensuring that her plans are not frustrated by unpredictable and galloping prices. This paper studies the dynamic causal relationship between inflation rate (measured by consumer price index (CPI)), exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), money growth, and oil export in Nigerian during 2005: Q1 to 2019: Q4. The ARDL bounds testing approach and error correction model were used to verify whether there was a long-term relationship between the inflation rate and four determinants (exchange rate, GDP, money growth, and oil export). The results of our study showed that the current inflation CPI, the exchange rate, GDP, and money growth would still affect the next quarter's inflation rate in Nigeria. However, the oil export has no significant effect on the inflation rate. Moreover, we find the long-run cointegration relationship between inflation CPI, the exchange rate, and money. The cointegration relationship will be achieved in a short time (during the next two quarters of the year).
Autoregressive distributed lag modelCointegrationError correction modelExchange rateGross domestic productMoney growthOil exportUnit root test
MOHAMED R. ABONAZEL、FUAD A. AWWAD、KINGDOM NWUJU、ADEWALE F. LUKMAN、IFEOMA B. LEKARA-BAYO、ENEBI Y. ATANU
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Department of Applied Statistics and Econometrics, Faculty of Graduate Studies for Statistical Research
Quantitative Analysis Department, College of Business Administration, King Saud University
Department of Mathematics, Rivers State University
Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Medical Sciences
Department of Statistics, Federal Polytechnic of Oil and Gas
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