首页|THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF NORWAY SPRUCE {Picea ahies Karst.) IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF NORWAY SPRUCE {Picea ahies Karst.) IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
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NSTL
Northern Arctic Federal Univ M V Lomonosov
As forests in Bosnia and Herzegovina cover 2,904,600 ha or 56.7 % of its total area, and since the meteorological data analysis for the period 1961-2014 shows that the mean annual temperature maintains a continuous rise, close attention should be paidto these fragile ecosystems. It is important to note that one of the most economically valuable species for forestry in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Norway spruce, is particularly endangered due to its very low drought resistance and spread of various diseases. Comparing the last climate sequence (1991 -2019) with the previous one (1961-1990) we found that the spruce-inhabited areas showed an average increase in the values of the Forest Aridity Index of 0.929. As for the Ellenberg’s climate quotient, it isnoticeable that climate change is not as strong as in the case of the Forest Aridity Index. Based on projections for the mid- (2041-2070) and late-century (2071-2100) under the RCP 4.5, there will be no change that is likely to significantly affect thedistribution of spruce. The predicted rates of decline and altitudinal shifts of favorable habitats are negligible. On the contrary, projections under the RCP 8.5 predict a significant reduction of suitable habitats, both for the existing range of Norwayspruce and the entire territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Particularly, late-century projection under the RCP 8.5 predicts an almost complete reduction of suitable habitats, while small areas of suitable habitats at higher elevations will remain intact.
NSTL
Northern Arctic Federal Univ M V Lomonosov
