首页|A method to devise multiple model structures for urban flood inundation uncertainty
A method to devise multiple model structures for urban flood inundation uncertainty
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NSTL
Elsevier
The interaction between the sewer network and the overland runoff is challenging to study due to the complex flow exchange between the two systems during flooding. The complexity increases when dealing with subcatchments that contain separated urban satellite areas that share the sewer network. Under this context it is possible to devise likely model structures which render determinist approaches spuriously precise. In this paper, a methodology is proposed for to devise multiple model structures for urban flood inundation uncertainty. Seven different model structures are assembled and validated in a case study Baiersdorf for the flood event from 21st of 2007 to produce a probabilistic flood inundation uncertainty map. The results show that the flood inundation extent uncertainty differs across the study area. The overall flood extent uncertainty covers 14.15% of the inundation area. The highest uncertainty is found to be 30.87% at the North part up of the study area. Many small areas of high uncertainty are concentrated in the main urban area, and close to most of the upstream boundary conditions. It is conducted that the highest uncertainties are likely to be found downstream of the coupling points of the 2D overland flow with either the 1D sewer system or the 1D overland flow network. These results highlight the need to consider multiple model structures when estimating the uncertainty of the flood inundation extents.
NSTL
Elsevier
