首页|The Coconut Industry: A Review of Price Forecasting Modelling in Major Coconut Producing Countries
The Coconut Industry: A Review of Price Forecasting Modelling in Major Coconut Producing Countries
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The global supply and demand for coconuts and coconut-based products have increased tremendously over the past decades; hence, the industry has become one of the significant contributors to the economies of producer countries. However, similar to theother agricultural commodities, coconut has also been confronted by fluctuation in prices and thus accords importance for a reliable price modelling and forecasting techniques to ease the burden on the value chain actors. Therefore, the objective of thispaper is to review the main approaches used in modelling and forecasting coconut prices, with an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. The modelling techniques used in coconut price forecasting were mainly time series models dominated by univariate time series models. This type of models excessively confines the analysis to a single variable, despite the many interactions affected in a system of coconut pricing. The major drawback in existing price modelling studies is the absence of interacting factors such as prices, production, climatic variables, their interactions and the external factors as a system. Therefore, it is important to integrate the existing studies of coconut price modelling and forecasting with a system's approach by including other influencing variables to generate more realistic forecast values, allowing the industry to adopt its changing circumstances.
Coconutmodellingprice forecastingtime series modelssystem’s approach
M.G.D Abeysekara、K.P Waidyarathne
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Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Management Division, Coconut Research Institute, Sri Lanka
Plant Physiology Division, Coconut Research Institute, Sri Lanka
NSTL
