Cacciapaglia, Giacomo 1Cot, Corentin 1de Hoffer, Adele 2Hohenegger, Stefan 1Sannino, Francesco 3Vatani, Shahram1
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作者信息
1. Inst Phys 2 Infinis IP2I Lyon
2. Politecn Torino
3. Scuola Super Merid
折叠
Abstract
We propose a physics-inspired mathematical model underlying the temporal evolution of competing virus variants that relies on the existence of (quasi) fixed points capturing the large time scale invariance of the dynamics. To motivate our result we first modify the time-honoured compartmental models of the SIR type to account for the existence of competing variants and then show how their evolution can be naturally re-phrased in terms of flow equations ending at quasi fixed points. As the natural next step we employ (near) scale invariance to organise the time evolution of the competing variants within the effective description of the epidemic Renormalisation Group framework. We test the resulting theory against the time evolution of COVID-19 virus variants that validate the theory empirically.
Key words
Epidemiology/Renormalisation group/Time evolution/Fixed points/Mutation and variants/Field theory/A-PRIORI PATHOMETRY/DISEASE-IN-ENGLAND/MILROY-LECTURES/RENORMALIZATION-GROUP/PROBABILITIES/VARIABILITY/PERSISTENCY/BEHAVIOR
NSTL
Elsevier