查看更多>>摘要:In oilfield production, the submergence depth of a pumping well is an important indicator for measuring the fullness of the pumping pump, determining reasonable oil well production parameters, and formulating efficient production measures. In order to solve the problems of high security risks, high production costs and large errors, a method of submergence depth prediction based on a hybrid model is proposed in this paper. Firstly, according to the production process of oil recovery, the analytical model is built to ensure that the submergence depth prediction meets the actual production requirements;; then, the data-driven model is used to compensate the prediction results of the analytical model, which in order to reduce the influence of various production parameters on the prediction accuracy. When using stochastic configuration networks (SCNs) to build the data model, it may encounter the problem that the generalization ability is easily affected by the noise of training set, outliers and multi-states. So, a SCNs modeling method based on random sampling strategy is proposed to solve this problem. Random sampling was conducted on the training set, and different training subsets are evaluated by defining V indexes, which not only considers the prediction accuracy, but also considers the stability of the model. Through comparisons of SCNs and SCNs with random sampling, the latter approach can reduce the prediction error at least by 11.65% in the training phase, and at least 62.19% in the testing phase. The simulation experiment results of predicted submergence depth show that, compared with other methods, the proposed SCNs with random sampling method can reduce the average prediction error at least by 1.95%, 30.52%, 0.28% and 34.36% at RMSE, MAE, MSE and MAPE for the testing set. These prove that the proposed model has advantages in comprehensive prediction performance and can meet actual production needs.