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经济学与金融学刊(英文版)
经济学与金融学刊(英文版)
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    Capital Controls: Myth and Reality

    Nicolas E. MagudCarmen M. ReinhartKenneth S. Rogoff
    1-47页
    查看更多>>摘要:This paper is a meta-analysis of the literature on capital controls that aims to solve (at least) four very serious apples-to-oranges problems: (i) There is no unified theoretical framework to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of controls; (ii) there is significant heterogeneity across countries and time in the control measures implemented; (iii) there are multiple definitions of what constitutes a "success"; and (iv) the empirical studies lack a common methodology-furthermore these are significantly over-weighted by a couple of country cases (Chile and Malaysia). In this paper, we attempt to address some of these shortcomings by being very explicit about what measures are construed as capital controls. Also, given that success is measured so differently across studies, we sought to standardize the results of the close to 40 empirical studies we summarize in this paper. The standardization was done by constructing two indices of capital controls: Capital Controls Effectiveness Index (CCE Index), and Weighted Capital Controls Effectiveness Index (WCCE Index). The difference between them lies in that the WCCE controls for the differentiated degree of methodological rigor applied in each of the considered papers. Inasmuch as possible, we bring to bear the experiences of less well-known episodes than those of Chile and Malaysia, and the more recent controls on outflows in emerging Europe. We find that only under country-specific characteristics are capital controls effective, implying that, more often than not, in practice they do not work. We also show that the equivalence in effects of price vs. quantity capital controls is conditional on the level of short-term capital flows.

    Trade, Sectorial Reallocation, and Growth

    Pengfei WangDanyang Xie
    49-74页
    查看更多>>摘要:This paper introduces sectorial heterogeneity in TFPs in a growth model to generate new insights on trade, sectorial reallocation, and economic growth. The rate of overall economic growth in this model is a simple average of sec-torial growth in a closed economy, but will depend on trade parameters in an open economy as openness to trade shifts resources toward fast-growing sectors. We find that the overall growth rate is unambiguously higher as the number of trading partners increases. These conclusions survive even after trade cost is introduced. Nevertheless, trade share and growth rate may not move in the same direction as trade liberalization is pursued or as the number of trading partners is increased. This finding may explain why the existing empirical evidence concerning this relationship between growth and trade share remains inconclusive.

    Does Fiscal Decentralization Increase the Investment Rate? Evidence from Chinese Panel Data

    Qichun HeMeng Sun
    75-101页
    查看更多>>摘要:China has one of the highest investment rates in the world, and in 1994, China introduced a new fiscal system. The current study utilizes provincial panel data from the period of 1995-2010 to provide a consistent underlying fiscal regime. The estimation results show that expenditure decentralization has a significant, positive effect on the physical capital investment rate in both least squares dummy variables (LSDV) and system GMM (Generalized method of moments) estimations. In contrast, revenue decentralization has a negative effect on the investment rate. One possible explanation is that China's political centralization has been maintained during its economic decentralization. Since the provincial officials are not elected by local constituents but are rather appointed by the central government, it is rational for provincial officials to raise investment rates to meet the cadre promotion criteria of the central government, be it growth performance, as argued by Blanchard and Shleifer (2001) or revenue collection, identified by Shih et al. (2012).

    Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model with Endogenous Productivity

    Dennis Wesselbaum
    103-135页
    查看更多>>摘要:This paper shows that transitory demand-side fiscal policy shocks can have long-run effects. We develop a Real Business Cycle model with search and matching frictions and introduce an endogenous growth channel driven by total hours worked. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods on data for the United States. The model with the endogenous growth link generates a better fit to the data than the model without the link. Further, we find evidence for cleansing effects of recessions. Therefore, transitory demand-side shocks will have long-run effects. We stress the policy relevance of endogenous productivity in recessions and for the effects of austerity programs.

    Optimal Inflation in a Model of Inside Money: A Further Result

    Wataru NozawaHoonsik Yang
    137-150页
    查看更多>>摘要:We extend the Deviatov and Wallace (2014) model of inside money in which they find some examples where inflation is beneficial. Their model was restrictive in that it could not address policies that provide interests on cash due to the small upper bound on money holdings. With a higher upper bound on money holdings, such policies can be engineered without inflation, and it is uncertain whether inflation is necessary for the optima. We investigate this possibility and confirm their results in a more generalized setting. At the optima, interest on cash is not provided, and positive inflation arises in a similar manner to Deviatov and Wallace (2014).

    A Critical Appraisal of Studies Analyzing Co-movement of International Stock Markets

    Jan F. KivietZhenxi Chen
    151-196页
    查看更多>>摘要:Literature is reviewed on the analysis of co-movement between the price indices of stocks or their realized returns at various markets. Four major categories of frequently recurring methodological shortcomings are registered. These are: (i) omitted regressor problems, (ii) neglecting to verify agreement of estimation outcomes with adopted model assumptions, (iii) employing particular statistical tests in inappropriate situations and, occasionally, (iv) lack of identification. The devastating effects of the detected methodological defects are explained in mildly technical appendices and are also illustrated by simulations and empirical examples.

    Mutual Fund Fee Structures and Broker Compensation

    Lonnie L. BryantMaureen ButlerZhongling Cao
    197-211页
    查看更多>>摘要:The mutual fund fee structure varies substantially across funds, a major variable being whether a contract imposes a fixed fee or marginal fee structure. This paper examines how the use of a fee structure affects broker compensation, investor investment decisions and broker benefits. Theory suggests that marginal fee contracts are the results of either economies of scale or non-linear fund performance. The intent of this study is to understand if the fee structure framing has a significant economic effect on broker compensations. Furthermore, to understand if fund inflows as well as fund performance are directly influenced by fee structure.

    Bank Concentration and Firms' Debt Structure: Evidence from China

    Peisen LiuShoujun HuangHoujian Li
    213-227页
    查看更多>>摘要:The argument on the puzzling relationship between bank concentration and firms' debt structure in China remains inconclusive as the effects of firm ownership competition and firm size competition are intertwined in the existing research. This article utilizes the market shares of Big Four state-owned banks to investigate whether bank concentration affects debt structure in China. The results show that bank concentration has a stronger positive effect on debt maturity for state-owned enterprises and large-sized enterprises. The effect of bank concentration on debt maturity strengthens with firm state ownership and firm size. Moreover, state-owned enterprises and large-sized enterprises are associated with a longer debt maturity compared to non-state-owned enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises, respectively. These results reveal that privatizing state-owned banks and state-owned enterprises would be an effective way to reduce credit discrimination and relieve the capital constraints of non-state-owned enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises.

    What can China Expect from an Increase of the Mandatory Retirement Age?

    Peter J. StauvermannJin Hu
    229-246页
    查看更多>>摘要:Because of an aging population, China is expected to raise the mandatory retirement age in order to mitigate the pressure on its pension system. Using an Overlapping Generations model we analyze the economic impacts resulting from an increase of the life expectancy and an increased retirement age on the pension system. The results show that it is ambiguous if an increasing retirement age will cause an increase or decrease of the pension benefits. We show that, the higher the share of capital income, the more probable it becomes that an increase of retirement age will exacerbate China's pension problems.

    Could Risk Management Be Harmful to Firms?

    Rui Li
    247-263页
    查看更多>>摘要:Based on a theoretical model, this paper shows that risk management policies shielding firms from marketwide risk exposures could be harmful to the firms. Specifically, if a firm's operation is delegated to a manager and subject to moral hazard problems, risk exposures could align the manager's interests with the firm owner's so that they alleviate the moral hazard problems and raise the firm's value. As a result, the risk management policies could reduce the firm's value to the owner.