首页期刊导航|气候变化研究进展(英文版)
期刊信息/Journal information
气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心
气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

秦大河

季刊

1674-9278

accre@cma.gov.cn

010-68400096

100081

北京市中关村南大街46号国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)/Journal Advances in Climate Change ResearchCSCD北大核心SCI
查看更多>>本刊是我国在气候变化研究领域内自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术期刊，其目的是使我国以自然科学和社会科学相结合为特色的气候变化研究在国际上占有一席之地。主要刊登与气候变化相关的跨学科研究进展，包括国内外关于气候变化科学事实、影响及对策研究最新成果。本刊旨在促进气候变化研究的发展，并推动研究成果在经济社会可持续发展、适应和减缓气候变化对策制定、气候政策与环境外交谈判、资源保护和开发等方面的应用。
正式出版
收录年代

    State of polar climate in 2023

    Ming-Hu DINGXin WANGLin-Gen BIANZhi-Na JIANG...
    769-783页
    查看更多>>摘要：The year 2023 has become the warmest year on global record.As the Antarctic and Arctic are sensitive regions to global warming,the climate changes in 2023 in these regions have attracted widespread attention.In this study,using observations,reanalysis and remote sensing data,we reported detailed polar climate changes in 2023,including warming,sea ice,atmospheric composition and extreme events.Antarctic exhibited large east-west regional differences and the coexistence of extreme warm and cold events.In Coats Land,Queen Maud Land and the Antarctic Peninsula,three and seven stations recorded the second and third highest autumn air temperatures in history,respectively.The Amundsen-Scott station experienced extreme warming event in July,with the temperature increasing by 40℃ in one day.Abnormal cooling was evident in the Ross Sea and neighboring regions which were predominantly winter(June-August)cold anomalies,with Marylin Station reaching the lowest winter temperature in history.The Arctic experienced the warmest summer after 1979,with an overall distribution of'warm land-cold sea'on annual average.Compared with the 1991-2020 average,the annual air temperature anomalies reached more than 2℃ in northern Canada and the Barents Sea-Kara Sea coast.Abnormal high summer temperature caused most severe wildfires in Canada on record and second largest daily cumulative melt area over the Greenland ice Sheet daily post-1979.Polar sea ice continued to decrease rapidly,with minimum sea ice extent in Antarctic and Arctic ranking the first and sixth lowest post-1979.For melt season,Arctic Ocean sea ice began to melt later in 2023 than the 2011-2023 average,and freeze onset was delayed due to high temperatures in summer and autumn.Additionally,the status of polar atmospheric greenhouse gases remains bleak,and major greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase.The Antarctic ozone hole in 2023 formed approximately 10 d earlier and lasted longer than the 1979-2023 average,with a maximum daily area of 2.6 x 107 km2 on 21 September.This summary of polar climate changes in 2023 will help people better understand global climate change and draw attention to polar regions.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Analysis of fast ice anomalies and their causes in 2023 in Prydz Bay,East Antarctica

    Jun-Hao LIUXin-Qing LIShao-Yin WANGZi-Xin WEI...
    784-797页
    查看更多>>摘要：In 2023,Antarctica experienced its lowest sea ice extent in the satellite era,with extreme polar events gaining widespread attention.Prydz Bay,where the Chinese Zhongshan Station is located,is the third largest embayment in Antarctica.Changes in sea ice,fast ice and polynyas directly affect local heat and mass exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere,as well as ecosystems and research activities.In 2023,substantial fast ice anomalies were observed in Prydz Bay:the extent of fast ice off Zhongshan Station(ZSFI)was anomalously low,while that within Barrier Bay(BaFI)was anomalously high.This study analysed the seasonal evolution and underlying main causes for the extreme conditions using ice charts,satellites and reanalysis data.From 2014 to 2022,the extent of ZSFI typically increased during the cold season,reaching a maximum of(9.41±2.47)× 103 km2,whilst the Barrier Bay Polynya(BaP)persisted throughout this period.However,in 2023,ZSFI did not increase from June onwards,peaking at a maximum extent of only 5.49 × 103 km2,and the BaP closed in mid-winter,leading to the formation of extensive BaFI.Air temperature and wind speed continuously dropped in July,and these conditions persisted for approximately 1 month,leading to the closure of BaP.However,ZSFI did not expand further under these extreme meteorological conditions,indicating its independence from these factors.The limited expansion of ZSFI could be attributed to high ocean temperatures.Overall,this study provides valuable insights into the mechanisms driving extreme fast ice conditions.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Turbulent heat fluxes in the North Water Polynya and ice estimated based on ASRv2 data and their impact on cloud

    Hai-Yi RENMohammed SHOKRTian-Yu ZHANGZhi-Lun ZHANG...
    798-814页
    查看更多>>摘要：The presence or absence of sea ice introduces a substantial perturbation to surface-atmosphere energy exchanges.Comprehending the effect of varying sea ice cover on surface-atmosphere interactions is an important consideration for understanding the Arctic climate system.The recurring North Water Polynya(NOW)serves as a natural laboratory for isolating cloud responses to a rapid,near-step perturbation in sea ice.In this study,we employed high-resolution Arctic System Reanalysis version 2(ASRv2)data to estimate turbulent heat fluxes over the NOW and nearby sea ice(NSI)area between 2005/2006 and 2015/2016.The results indicate that the average turbulent heat fluxes in the polynya are about 87％and 86％higher than in the NSI area over the 10 years during the entire duration of the polynya and during polar night,respectively.Enhanced turbulent heat fluxes from the polynya tend to produce more low-level clouds.The relationship between the polynya and low cloud in winter was examined based on Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations(CALIPSO).The low-cloud fraction(0-2 km)was about 7％-34％larger over the polynya than the NSI area,and the ice water content below 200 m was about 250％-413％higher over the former than the latter.The correlation between cloud fraction and turbulent heat fluxes in the polynya peaks around the altitude of 200-300 m.These results suggest that the NOW affects the Arctic boundary layer cloudiness and structure in wintertime.Furthermore,higher horizontal resolution reanalysis data can advance our understanding of the cloud-polynya response.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Accelerated glacier mass loss in the mid-latitude Eurasia from 2019 to 2022 revealed by ICESat-2

    Gen-Yu WANGChang-Qing KEYu-Bin FANXiao-Yi SHEN...
    815-829页
    查看更多>>摘要：The dynamics of glaciers serve as one of the most important indicators of climate change.Whilst current research has primarily concentrated on long-term interannual glacier mass balance and its response to climate change,glaciers may respond more rapidly to climate change,highlighting the urgent need for intra-annual mass balance estimations.Investigating seasonal or short-term variations in glacier mass balance not only enhances our understanding of the interactions between glaciers and the climate system but also provides crucial data for water resource management and ecological protection.The ICESat-2 and NASADEM datasets were used to estimate the inter-and intra-annual glacier mass balance changes in the mid-latitude Eurasia from 2019 to 2022.Additionally,the response of glacier mass balance to regional air temperature and precipitation values was analysed using ERA5-Land data and multiple regression analysis,respectively.From 2019 to 2022,glacier mass loss in mid-latitude Eurasia reached-45.02±34.21 Gt per year,contributing to a global sea-level rise of 0.12±0.09 mm per year.The glacier melt rate in the study area from 2019 to 2022 was 2.33 times higher than that from 2000 to 2019.With the exception of the Western Kunlun region,which experienced a weak accumulation rate of 0.04±0.35 m w.e.per year,all other areas experienced ablation states.Seasonal mass balance responds differently to temperature and precipitation variations across seasons:higher temperatures in different seasons lead to more negative mass balances,while increased winter and spring precipitation can slow down glacier melt.Air temperature dominates the glacier mass balance changes in the study area.The intense heat in 2022 raised average glacier temperatures by 1.04℃ compared to 2019-2021,resulting in a more negative mass balance and an increased ice loss of-0.34±1.01 m w.e.per year(-35.07±103.22 Gt per year).This analysis indicates that glacier mass balance is highly sensitive to climate change,even on a seasonal scale.Moreover,the high precision and spatiotemporal resolution ICESat-2 data can facilitate the investigation of large-scale glacier mass balance on short time scales.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Water budgets in an arid and alpine permafrost basin:Observations from the High Mountain Asia

    Qing-Feng WANGHui-Jun JINDong-Liang LUOYu SHENG...
    830-844页
    查看更多>>摘要：Ground freeze-thaw processes have significant impacts on infiltration,runoff and evapotranspiration.However,there are still critical knowledge gaps in understanding of hydrological processes in permafrost regions,especially of the interactions among permafrost,ecology,and hydrology.In this study,an alpine permafrost basin on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was selected to conduct hydrological and meteorological observations.We analyzed the annual variations in runoff,precipitation,evapotranspiration,and changes in water storage,as well as the mechanisms for runoff gen-eration in the basin from May 2014 to December 2015.The annual flow curve in the basin exhibited peaks both in spring and autumn floods.The high ratio of evapotranspiration to annual precipitation(＞1.0)in the investigated wetland is mainly due to the considerably underestimated'observed'precipitation caused by the wind-induced instrumental error and the neglect of snow sublimation.The stream flow from early May to late October probably came from the lateral discharge of subsurface flow in alpine wetlands.This study can provide data support and validation for hydrological model simulation and prediction,as well as water resource assessment,in the upper Yellow River Basin,especially for the headwater area.The results also provide case support for permafrost hydrology modeling in ungauged or poorly gauged watersheds in the High Mountain Asia.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Enhanced precipitation responses over the Tibetan Plateau following future Tambora-size volcanic eruption

    Xin-Jun GANLin-Shan YANGMeng ZUOFei LIU...
    845-858页
    查看更多>>摘要：Hydroclimate over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)notably influences the eco-environment of the Northern Hemisphere.Given its high elevation and complex topography,the climate in the TP shows a high sensitivity to anthropogenic warming and volcanic-induced cooling.The mechanism by which a future volcanic or similar radiative perturbation affects precipitation in the TP under an anthropogenic warming climate must be addressed not only to enable regional adaptation but deepen our understanding of how a climate system evolves under such a dual force.Here,based on the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 and ensemble simulations under pre-industrial and RCP8.5 scenarios,we showed that a Tambora-sized volcanic perturbation led to severe rainfall reduction over the south TP in the following summer(June-August).Evaporation response accounted for a minor and relatively constant share of precipitation reduction following the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling,whereas dynamic processes triggered an El Niño-like response in the eastern equatorial Pacific,which suppressed the Walker and Hadley circulation and contributed to drying anomalies.Global warming renders the post-Tambora hydroclimate responses with 30％higher severity as a result of the increased climatological moisture content and intensified El Niño response,which enhanced hydroclimate sensitivity and attenuated monsoon circulation.The results illustrate the amplification effect of global warming on the plateau's hydroclimate responses to external forcings,which may add another layer of uncertainty on climate adaptation in this already complex region.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Land-atmosphere feedbacks weaken the risks of precipitation extremes over Australia in a warming climate

    Mei-Yu CHANGZhi-Yan ZUOLiang QIAOKai-Wen ZHANG...
    859-868页
    查看更多>>摘要：The importance of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional precipitation changes has been recently noted.However,how land-atmosphere feedbacks shape daily precipitation distributions,particularly the tails of precipitation distributions associated with extreme events,remains unclear on a regional scale.Herein,using the latest land-atmosphere coupling experiments,this study reveals a consistent weakening effect of land-atmosphere feedbacks on the future increase in precipitation extremes over Australia,revealing the most pronounced reduction(56.8％)for the long-term(2080-2099)projection under the low emission(SSP1-2.6)scenario.This weakening effect holds true for shifts in the extreme tail of precipitation distribution,resulting in a reduced risk of precipitation extremes in a warming climate.Land-atmosphere feedbacks offset 28％-60％of the occurrence risk for the 99th percentile of daily precipitation,with the largest reduction of 172％when precipitation exceeds the 99.7th percentile in the long-term projection under the high emission(SSP5-8.5)scenario.Considering less water replenishment,these feedbacks may reduce the risk of flooding but potentially expedite droughts,highlighting the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks in extreme event pro-jection and regional climate adaptation.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Relative contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic components on Southeast Asia future precipitation changes from different multi-GCM ensemble members

    Sheau Tieh NGAISrivatsan V.RAGHAVANJing Xiang CHUNGBhenjamin Jordan ONA...
    869-882页
    查看更多>>摘要：To address the gap in understanding precipitation changes in Southeast Asia and to enhance the reliability of climate projections for the region through moisture budget analysis,this study examines the differences among six multi-model ensembles of CMIP6 simulated precipi-tation in term of moisture budget analysis.It investigates the relative contributions of thermodynamic and dynamic components to seasonal precipitation changes over Southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario,SSP5-8.5.The comparison between ensembles indicates that Good performance model ensembles slightly outperform the combination of all resolution and all category ensembles in reducing the biases.There is no strong evidence showing that good category ensembles outperform the combination of all model ensemble groups in simulating the spatial pattern of historical seasonal precipitation.From the perspective of moisture budget,regions receiving seasonal high rainfall intensity are mainly influenced by the moisture convergence during the monsoon seasons:northeast monsoon(December-January-February)and southwest monsoon(June-July-August).By the late 21st century(2081-2100),all model ensemble projections show an increase in December-January-February precipitation over the northern Southeast Asia and decreased June-July-August rainfall in the southern regions.The moisture budget analysis explained that the seasonal mean rainfall change in Southeast Asia is largely influenced by evaporation and followed by moisture flux convergence.The changes in moisture flux convergence are contributed by both the dynamic and thermodynamic components.Greater inter-model uncertainty was found in the precipitation dynamic component compared to the thermodynamic component suggesting the existence of large discrepancy between the various approaches used by GCMs in describing atmospheric dynamics.The study highlights that the Good model ensemble with middle to low resolution is able to narrow the inter-model uncertainties in terms of the moisture budget analysis compared to the combination of all Good model ensembles.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Combined impacts of aerosols and urbanization on a highly threatened extreme precipitation event in Beijing,China

    Tai-Chen FENGTian-Gang YUANZhi-Yuan HUTie-Jun XIE...
    883-893页
    查看更多>>摘要：On July 21,2012,a catastrophic precipitation event occurred in Beijing,highlighting the serious threat of extreme precipitation on socio-economic development and human health under climate change.Nevertheless,whether,how and to what extent aerosols and urbanization,as the two main influencing factors of urban extreme precipitation,have affected this highly damaging extreme event remains largely unex-plored.Here,we employed the weather research and forecasting model coupled with chemistry(WRF-Chem)and a single-layer urban canopy model to investigate the influences of urbanization,aerosols and their interactions on this extreme precipitation event.We found that the joint intensification effects of urbanization and aerosols on extreme precipitation events greatly enhance its negative influence on megacities.The results indicate that aerosols are enhanced by increasing cloud droplet numbers,thereby intensifying the feedback between precipitation and latent heating.Consequently,the total precipitation increased by 22.6％,raising the precipitation in the Beijing area increase by at least 50 mm.By stimulating atmospheric instability and strengthening vertical air motion(over 0.25 m s-1),the urban heat island effect considerably in-fluences the temporal and spatial distributions of extreme precipitation events,resulting in an increase in warm cloud precipitation(80％)and a decrease(30％)in frontal precipitation.Consequently,joint intensification effects resulted in more concentrated precipitation in the southwest of Beijing,leading to a substantial increase(more than 40％,～80 mm).This condition may be an important reason for the most severe disasters in the southwest of Beijing.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Scientific land greening under climate change:Theory,modeling,and challenges

    Jia-Na CHENZai-Chun ZHUSen CAOPeng-Jun ZHAO...
    894-913页
    查看更多>>摘要：Anthropogenic land greening is a vital strategy to combat the global warming crisis.However,the changing external environment and endowment factors may constrain the effectiveness of land greening.It remains unclear how to quantify and optimize land greening strategies scientifically.This article reviewed the theoretical foundations of land greening,pointing out that climate governance and human settlement quality improvement have gradually become the two core objectives of land greening since the 20th century.Multi-source and multi-scale experimental and observational surveys are important techniques for detecting and evaluating long-term land greening in the context of climate change,especially by forming experimental and observational networks.The theoretical mechanisms of interactions among climate,humans,and vegetation were also explored.For modeling approaches,hybrid modeling based on Earth system coupling theory may be the most promising but challenging approach.Four main challenges of scientific land greening were also discussed,including knowledge gaps related to land greening mechanisms,unclear multifaceted effects of land greening,lack of forward-looking quantitative assessment,and difficulties in evaluating synergies and trade-offs among assessment targets.Based on these,a strategic framework was proposed,including systematic observation,mechanism research,expectation assessment,and scientific planning for scientific greening programs in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.This review underscored the importance of proactively implementing land greening programs and provided guidelines for scientific greening based on cutting-edge theory and methods.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据