首页|Relative contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic components on Southeast Asia future precipitation changes from different multi-GCM ensemble members

Relative contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic components on Southeast Asia future precipitation changes from different multi-GCM ensemble members

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To address the gap in understanding precipitation changes in Southeast Asia and to enhance the reliability of climate projections for the region through moisture budget analysis,this study examines the differences among six multi-model ensembles of CMIP6 simulated precipi-tation in term of moisture budget analysis.It investigates the relative contributions of thermodynamic and dynamic components to seasonal precipitation changes over Southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario,SSP5-8.5.The comparison between ensembles indicates that Good performance model ensembles slightly outperform the combination of all resolution and all category ensembles in reducing the biases.There is no strong evidence showing that good category ensembles outperform the combination of all model ensemble groups in simulating the spatial pattern of historical seasonal precipitation.From the perspective of moisture budget,regions receiving seasonal high rainfall intensity are mainly influenced by the moisture convergence during the monsoon seasons:northeast monsoon(December-January-February)and southwest monsoon(June-July-August).By the late 21st century(2081-2100),all model ensemble projections show an increase in December-January-February precipitation over the northern Southeast Asia and decreased June-July-August rainfall in the southern regions.The moisture budget analysis explained that the seasonal mean rainfall change in Southeast Asia is largely influenced by evaporation and followed by moisture flux convergence.The changes in moisture flux convergence are contributed by both the dynamic and thermodynamic components.Greater inter-model uncertainty was found in the precipitation dynamic component compared to the thermodynamic component suggesting the existence of large discrepancy between the various approaches used by GCMs in describing atmospheric dynamics.The study highlights that the Good model ensemble with middle to low resolution is able to narrow the inter-model uncertainties in terms of the moisture budget analysis compared to the combination of all Good model ensembles.

Moisture budgetPrecipitationFuture changeCMIP6Southeast Asia

Sheau Tieh NGAI、Srivatsan V.RAGHAVAN、Jing Xiang CHUNG、Bhenjamin Jordan ONA、Lucian Taft KIMBRELL、Ngoc Son NGUYEN、Thanh-Hung NGUYEN、Sen-Feng LIU

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Tropical Marine Science Institute,National University of Singapore,Singapore 119227,Singapore

Faculty of Science and Marine Environment,Universiti Malaysia Terengganu,Kuala Nerus,Terengganu 21030,Malaysia

Department of Geography,Faculty of Arts and Social Science,National University of Singapore,Singapore 119227,Singapore

Donghai Laboratory,Zhoushan,Zhejiang 316021,China

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2024

10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.007

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2024.15(5)