期刊,气候变化研究进展(英文版) 2024年卷1期_国家学术搜索

期刊信息/Journal information

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

主办单位：国家气候中心

主　　编：秦大河

出版周期：季刊

国际刊号：1674-9278

电子邮箱：accre@cma.gov.cn

电　　话：010-68400096

邮政编码：100081

地　　址：北京市中关村南大街46号国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)/Journal Advances in Climate Change ResearchCSCD北大核心SCI

查看更多>>本刊是我国在气候变化研究领域内自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术期刊，其目的是使我国以自然科学和社会科学相结合为特色的气候变化研究在国际上占有一席之地。主要刊登与气候变化相关的跨学科研究进展，包括国内外关于气候变化科学事实、影响及对策研究最新成果。本刊旨在促进气候变化研究的发展，并推动研究成果在经济社会可持续发展、适应和减缓气候变化对策制定、气候政策与环境外交谈判、资源保护和开发等方面的应用。

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Amplification effect of intra-seasonal variability of soil moisture on heat extremes over Eurasia

Yi-Nuo WANGZhi-Yan ZUOLiang QIAOKai-Wen ZHANG...

1-8页

查看更多>>摘要：Drying soil has been conducive to a high frequency of extreme high-temperature events over many regions worldwide in recent decades.However,changes in the intraseasonal variability of soil moisture can also influence the likelihood of extremely high temperatures.Although previous investigators have examined the association between extremely high temperatures and large-scale atmospheric circulation variability,the role of land-atmosphere coupling dominated by soil moisture variability in extremely high temperatures,particularly over the Eurasian continent,is not well understood.In this study,on the basis of the Land Surface,Snow,and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project,we found that land-atmosphere feedback amplified the variability of soil moisture in most regions of Eurasia during summer from 1980 to 2014.This amplification of soil moisture variability is closely correlated with more intensive intraseasonal variability of surface air temperature and more frequent occurrences of extreme high-temperature events,particularly in Europe,Siberia,Northeast Asia,and the Indochina Peninsula.This correlation implies that increasing the intraseasonal variability of soil moisture results in a high likelihood of heat extremes during summer in most parts of Eurasia except Asian desert areas.On the intraseasonal timescale,the land-atmosphere coupling increases the variability of surface sensible heat flux and net long-wave radiation heating the atmosphere by intensifying the soil moisture variability,thus amplifying the variability of surface air temperature and enhancing the extreme high-temperature days.This finding demonstrates the importance of changes in intraseasonal soil moisture variability for the increasing likelihood of heat extremes in summer.

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Persistent greening against drying in northeast Asian semiarid grasslands:Asymmetrical responses of direct and legacy effects to intensified drought

Yu-Tong MAHai-Shan CHENYao-Ming SONGBo-Tao ZHOU...

9-20页

查看更多>>摘要：Despite experiencing a decadal shift towards drought conditions at the end of the 20th century,semiarid grasslands in northeast Asia(NEA)exhibited an evident greening trend from 1982 to 2020.However,the mechanism behind this phenomenon remains unclear.Hence,we analysed the interdecadal changes in vegetation response to drought on the basis of the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)and Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies LAI4g datasets,with an emphasis on the differences between direct and legacy effects(as measured by resilience),to explore the mechanism of persistent grassland greening.Results revealed that during the post-drought shift period(2000-2020),the sudden decrease in the water content of the intermediate soil layer triggered an intensified vegetation response to drought.Specifically,although direct effects and resilience were amplified,they exhibited asymmetric changes.Resilience was stronger than direct effects,and this difference increased with increasing drought(drought recovery)levels.These combined effects may account for persistent greening against intensified drying in the semiarid grasslands in NEA.Given the projected exacerbation of future droughts,this study holds notable importance for comprehending the long-term change dynamics of dryland ecosystems.

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Extraordinary hot extreme in summer 2022 over the Yangtze River basin modulated by the La Ni?a condition under global warming

Zhen LIAOYu-Feng YUANYang CHENPan-Mao ZHAI...

21-30页

查看更多>>摘要：A widespread and prolonged hot extreme hit the Yangtze River basin in summer 2022,with 300 sites established new temperature records and nearly 96％stations endured more than 40 hot days.From the perspective of the combination effect of the global warming and La Niña condition,potential mechanisms of the hot extreme were investigated.Such a record-breaking hot extreme was caused by an extremely strong and westward-shifted western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).The global warming effect contributed primarily to the abnormal hot days in the Yangtze River basin,coupled with the modulation of the La Niña condition.The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern under La Niña condition favored more convection activities over the western Pacific,encouraging an enhanced and westward-extended WPSH.In addition,an observation-based attribution analysis indicates that anthropogenic warming may increase the probability of such extensively persistent hot extreme by 1.8 times.

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Spatial distribution of supra-permafrost groundwater in the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor using inversion models

Yu GAOMing-Tang CHAIWei MAYu-Tao GAO...

31-41页

查看更多>>摘要：Supra-permafrost groundwater(SPG)is a key factor that causes damage to highways and railways in the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor(QTEC).It is difficult to monitor SPG in the field due to their complex formation mechanisms and movement characteristics.Traditional single-site field monitoring studies limit the spatial and temporal precision of SPG spatial distribution.To determine the moisture content of shallow soils and the SPG distribution along the QTEC,this work employed the temperature vegetation dryness index and remote sensing models for groundwater table distribution models.The accuracies of the models were validated using mea-surements obtained from different sites in the corridor.In the permafrost zones of the QTEC,72％,22％and 6％of the SPG were located at depths of 0.5-1,＜0.5 and＞1 m,respectively.Meanwhile,79.4％of the area along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway(QTH)(Xidatan-Tanggula)section contained SPG.In these sections with SPG,37.9％have an SPG table at depths of 0.5-0.8 m.This study preliminarily explored the SPG distribution in the QTEC with a 30 m resolution.The findings can help improve the spatial scale of SPG research,provide a basis for the analysis of the hydrothermal mechanisms,and serve as a guide in the assessment of operational risks and road structure designs.

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国家科技期刊平台
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Winter extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale

Qing-Quan LIMiao BISong YANGQing-Yuan WU...

42-51页

查看更多>>摘要：The Tibetan Plateau(TP)and the Arctic are the most sensitive regions to global climate change.However,the interdecadal varibility of winter extreme precipitation over the TP and its linkage with Arctic sea ice are still unclear.In this study,the characteristics and mechisnems of the TP extreme precipitation(TPEP)influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale are studied based on the daily precipitation,monthly sea ice concentration and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980 to 2018.We found that the dominant mode of the TPEP in winter mostly exhibits a uniform spatial variation on the interdecadal timescale,with an opposite weak variation in the southeastern TP,and the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)before 2002 are larger than that after 2003.The interdecadal variation of TPEP is affected by two teleconnection wave trains regulated by the Barents and Kara Sea ice.In the light ice years,a remarkable positive geopotential height(HGT)anomaly appears over the Barents-Kara Sea and a remarkable negative HGT anomaly is located over the Lake Baikal.Two wave trains originating over the Barents-Kara Sea can be observed.The southern branch forms a wave train through the North Atlantic along the subtropical westerly jet stream,showing a'+-+-+'pattern of HGT anomalies from Arctic to the TP.Negative HGT anomaly controls the western TP,which creates dynamic and water vapor conditions for the TPEP.The northern branch forms a wave train through the Lake Baikal and the southeast of the TP,showing a'+-+'HGT anomaly distribution.Positive HGT anomaly controls the southeastern TP,which is not conducive to precipitation in the region.When the SIC in the Barents-Kara Sea increases,the situation is opposite.The above analysis also reveals the reason for the difference in the east-west distribution of the TPEP.

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Construction of daily precipitation series and the observational characteristics of extreme precipitation in Tianjin,China during 1888-2022

Peng SIQing-Xiang LIXiao-Yang CHENMin WANG...

52-61页

查看更多>>摘要：Given the difficulties in rescuing and ensuring the quality of long-term climate data,current studies on century-scale climate change are usually limited to annual and monthly data,resulting in the poor detection of extreme climate events and their changes before 1950.In this study,we reconstructed a daily precipitation series for Tianjin from 15 September 1887 to 31 December 2022 on the basis of the most comprehensive daily precipitation records collected from the Tianjin Meteorological Archive,China,and in reference to the precipitation analysis results based on the datasets developed by the Climatic Research Unit Time-Series version 4.06,Global Precipitation Climatology Centre and University of Delaware along with the application of various homogenisation methods for climate series.Our approach provides a complete and reliable century-long daily precipitation series for the study of regional or local extreme weather and climate events.The reconstructed daily dataset reveals that the annual precipitation amount and R95 intensity in Tianjin during 1888-2022 lack significant trends and have values of 0.74±6.99 and-1.84±3.22 mm per decade,respectively.On the annual and seasonal scales,the precipitation amount and R95 intensity,particularly those in autumn,have increased since the latter half of the 20th century relative to those in 1888-1950.However,the increase in precipitation amount and R95 intensity is relatively limited compared with that in atmospheric water vapour content due to surface warming,indicating the highly sensitive response of extreme precipitation events to warming.In addition,the estimates for the return periods of 5,10,20,50 and 100 years covering 1888-2022,1888-1950 and 1951-2022 depict that the intensity of heavy rain and above magnitude was highest in 1888-1950 and decreased in 1951-2022.

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Response of runoff and its components to climate change in the Manas River of the Tian Shan Mountains

Ze-Long YANGPeng BAI

62-74页

查看更多>>摘要：A warming-wetting climate trend has led to increased runoff in most watersheds in the Tian Shan Mountains over the past few decades.However,it remains unclear how runoff components,that is,rainfall runoff(Rrain),snowmelt runoff(Rsnow),and glacier meltwater(Rglacier),responded to historical climate change and how they will evolve under future climate change scenarios.Here,we used a modified Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning(HBV)model and a detrending method to quantify the impact of precipitation and temperature changes on runoff components in the largest river(Manas River)on the northern slope of the Tian Shan Mountains from 1982 to 2015.A multivariate calibration strategy,including snow cover,glacier area,and runoff was implemented to constrain model parameters associated with runoff components.The downscaled outputs of 12 general circulation models(GCMs)from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)were also used to force the modified HBV model to project the response of runoff and its components to future(2016-2100)climate change under three common socio-economic pathways(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585).The results indicate that Rrain dominates mean annual runoff with a proportion of 42％,followed by Rsnow(37％)and Rglacier(21％).In terms of inter-annual variation,Rrain and Rsnow show increasing trends(0.93(p＜0.05)and 0.31(p＞0.05)mm per year),while Rglacier exhibits an insignificant(p＞0.05)decreasing trend(-0.12 mm per year),leading to an increasing trend in total runoff(1.12 mm per year,p＞0.05).The attribution analysis indicates that changes in precipitation and temperature contribute 8.16 and 10.37 mm,respectively,to the increase in runoff at the mean annual scale.Climate wetting(increased precipitation)increases Rrain(5.03 mm)and Rsnow(3.19 mm)but has a limited effect on Rglacier(-0.06 mm),while warming increases Rrain(10.69 mm)and Rglacier(5.79 mm)but decreases Rsnow(-6.12 mm).The negative effect of glacier shrinkage on Rglacier has outweighed the positive effect of warming on Rglacier,resulting in the tipping point(peak water)for Rglacier having passed.Runoff projections indicate that future decreases in Rglacier and Rsnow could be offset by increases in Rrain due to increased precipitation projections,reducing the risk of shortages of available water resources.However,management authorities still need to develop adequate adaptation strategies to cope with the continuing decline in Rglacier in the future,considering the large inter-annual fluctuations and high uncertainty in precipitation projection.

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Streamflow abrupt change and the driving factors in glacierized basins of Tarim Basin,Northwest China

Cheng-De YANGMin XUShi-Chang KANGCong-Sheng FU...

75-89页

查看更多>>摘要：A climate transition towards warm-wet conditions in Northwest China has drawn much attention.With continuous climate change and universal glacier degradation,increasing water-related hazards and vulnerability have become one of the important problems facing the Tarim Basin.However,the impacts of the climate transition on streamflow abrupt change and extreme hydrological events were less discussed,especially in glacial basins.In the present study,the discharge datasets in four glacial basins of Tarim Basin from 1979 to 2018 were constructed using the GRU-GSWAT+model first.The differences in streamflow characteristics,the shift of hydrological extreme pattern,and potential changes of the controlling factors before and after the abrupt changes were investigated.The results indicated that the abrupt change point(ACP)in streamflow occurred in 2000 in the Qarqan River Basin,2002 in the Weigan River Basin,and 1994 in the Aksu River Basin and the Yarkant River Basin.A general decrease in streamflow before the ACP has shifted to a notable upward trend in the Qarqan River Basin and the Aksu River Basin,while minor upward fluctuations were observed in other basins.Moreover,the hydrological characteristics in extreme events vary dramatically before and after the ACPs,characterized by a pronouncing shift from drought-dominant pattern to wet events dominated pattern.The driven climate factors have been altered after the ACPs with notable spatial heterogeneity,in which temperature remained as the dominant role in meltwater-dominated basins while the influence of precipitation has increased after the ACPs,whereas the sensitivity of temperature on streamflow change has been enhanced in basins dominated by precipitation such as the Qarqan River Basin.Owing to the evident warming-wetting trend and glacier compensation effect,both the inter-annual and intra-annual streamflow fluctuations can be efficiently smoothed in basins with a high glacier area ratio(GAR).These findings provide a further understanding of the abrupt change in streamflow under the exacerbated climate and glacier change in mountainous arid regions.

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Climate warming is likely to weaken the performance of two-phase closed thermosyphon on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Guan-Li JIANGZi-Teng FUXin-Yu MENHong-Ting ZHAO...

90-100页

查看更多>>摘要：Over the years,numerous geotechnical approaches have been implemented to mitigate the adverse effects of climate warming on various infrastructures in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),such as the Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Railway,and achieved the expected engineering outcomes.However,little attention has been given to whether the performance of these geotechnical approaches has changed during the ongoing process of climate warming.To investigate the performance variation of one of these geotechnical approaches,which is two-phase closed thermosyphon(TPCT),during sustained climate warming,we conducted a statistical analysis of soil temperature monitoring data in 2003-2020 from eight regular embankments and six TPCT embankments in our permafrost monitoring network.The results indicate that TPCT undeniably has a cooling effect on the permafrost beneath embankments,even rapidly eliminated previously formed taliks beneath embankment.However,further analysis reveals that the performance of TPCT has been weakening during sustained climate warming,which has confirmed by the re-forming of the taliks beneath embankment where they had been previously eliminated.Based on the current understanding,we attributed the weakening of thermosyphon performance to a significant reduction in the air temperature freezing index caused by ongoing climate warming.Through this study,we aimed to draw attention to the evolving performance of geotechnical approaches in permafrost regions amid climate warming,prompting necessary engineering innovations to address this situation and ensure the sustainable development of the permafrost region on the QTP.

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Warming intensified the effects of nitrogen addition on N2O emissions from alpine meadow in the northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Ming-Jie LIYi-Qing GEHasbagan GANJURJAVGuo-Zheng HU...

101-112页

查看更多>>摘要：Warming and nitrogen(N)addition may impact soil nitrous oxide(N2O)emissions,but the relationship between plant community composition and soil microbial activities remains unclear.For a two-year field study in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,open-top chambers were used to quantify the effects of warming,N-addition,and their interactions on N2O emissions.We found that the N-addition greatly increased N2O emissions by 77.4％in 2018 when compared to the control group.In contrast,warming showed little effect on N2O emissions but did increase the activity of enzymes associated with soil nitrification and denitrification.A combined effect of warming and N-addition of resulted in 208.6％(2018)and 90.8％(2019)increase in N2O emissions,respectively,compared to the individual treatments of warming or N-addition.Global warming in alpine meadows is causally linked to increased legume biomass which is further intensified with the N-addition.Intensified legume biomass(p＜0.05),soil moisture(p＜0.001)and enzyme activity(p＜0.001)had a positive effect on N2O emissions,while diminished microbial carbon/nitrogen(MBC/MBN)(p＜0.05)correlated with reduced N2O emissions.Final results indicated that N-addition has a positive effect on N2O emissions,and the addition of warming further intensifies this effect.The increased dominance of legumes and microbial N content contributes to this effect.These outcomes suggest that warming and atmospheric N deposition can stimulate N2O emissions of alpine meadows in the future.

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