首页|Streamflow abrupt change and the driving factors in glacierized basins of Tarim Basin,Northwest China

Streamflow abrupt change and the driving factors in glacierized basins of Tarim Basin,Northwest China

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A climate transition towards warm-wet conditions in Northwest China has drawn much attention.With continuous climate change and universal glacier degradation,increasing water-related hazards and vulnerability have become one of the important problems facing the Tarim Basin.However,the impacts of the climate transition on streamflow abrupt change and extreme hydrological events were less discussed,especially in glacial basins.In the present study,the discharge datasets in four glacial basins of Tarim Basin from 1979 to 2018 were constructed using the GRU-GSWAT+model first.The differences in streamflow characteristics,the shift of hydrological extreme pattern,and potential changes of the controlling factors before and after the abrupt changes were investigated.The results indicated that the abrupt change point(ACP)in streamflow occurred in 2000 in the Qarqan River Basin,2002 in the Weigan River Basin,and 1994 in the Aksu River Basin and the Yarkant River Basin.A general decrease in streamflow before the ACP has shifted to a notable upward trend in the Qarqan River Basin and the Aksu River Basin,while minor upward fluctuations were observed in other basins.Moreover,the hydrological characteristics in extreme events vary dramatically before and after the ACPs,characterized by a pronouncing shift from drought-dominant pattern to wet events dominated pattern.The driven climate factors have been altered after the ACPs with notable spatial heterogeneity,in which temperature remained as the dominant role in meltwater-dominated basins while the influence of precipitation has increased after the ACPs,whereas the sensitivity of temperature on streamflow change has been enhanced in basins dominated by precipitation such as the Qarqan River Basin.Owing to the evident warming-wetting trend and glacier compensation effect,both the inter-annual and intra-annual streamflow fluctuations can be efficiently smoothed in basins with a high glacier area ratio(GAR).These findings provide a further understanding of the abrupt change in streamflow under the exacerbated climate and glacier change in mountainous arid regions.

Abrupt changeStreamflowHybrid modelTarim BasinGlacier

Cheng-De YANG、Min XU、Shi-Chang KANG、Cong-Sheng FU、Wei ZHANG、Di-Di HU

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State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences,Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210000,China

National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of Chinaproject of State Key Laboratory of Computer ScienceChina-Pakistan joint program of the Chinese Academy of SciencesInternational Cooperation Program of CAS-CSIRO

419710944197108342371145SKLCS-ZZ-2023046GJHZ2023069MI131B62KYSB20190042

2024

10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.009

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2024.15(1)
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