期刊,气候变化研究进展(英文版) 2021年卷2期_国家学术搜索

期刊信息/Journal information

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

主办单位：国家气候中心

主　　编：秦大河

出版周期：季刊

国际刊号：1674-9278

电子邮箱：accre@cma.gov.cn

电　　话：010-68400096

邮政编码：100081

地　　址：北京市中关村南大街46号国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)/Journal Advances in Climate Change ResearchCSCD北大核心SCI

查看更多>>本刊是我国在气候变化研究领域内自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术期刊，其目的是使我国以自然科学和社会科学相结合为特色的气候变化研究在国际上占有一席之地。主要刊登与气候变化相关的跨学科研究进展，包括国内外关于气候变化科学事实、影响及对策研究最新成果。本刊旨在促进气候变化研究的发展，并推动研究成果在经济社会可持续发展、适应和减缓气候变化对策制定、气候政策与环境外交谈判、资源保护和开发等方面的应用。

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收录年代

Synoptic mode of Antarctic summer sea ice superimposed on interannual and decadal variability

YU Le-JiangZHONG Shi-YuanSUI Cui-JuanZHANG Zhao-Ru...

147-161页

查看更多>>摘要：In contrast to decreased Arctic sea ice extent, Antarctic sea ice extent shows a somewhat increased trend. There is a large interannual variability of Antarctic sea ice, especially in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. The change and variability of Antarctic sea ice in synoptic timescales in the recent decades remain unclear. We identify synoptic modes of variability of Antarctic summer sea ice by applying the Self Organizing Map (SOM) technique to daily sea ice concentration data for the period 1979-2018. Nearly 40％of the variability is characterized by opposite changes between sea ice cover in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen and western Ross Seas and in the rest of the Antarctic seas, and another 30％ by meridional asymmetry in the Weddell, Amundsen, and Ross Seas. Most of these spatial patterns may be explained by the dynamics and thermodynamic processes associated with anomalous atmospheric circulations related to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) with a structure of strong zonal asymmetry. The interannual variability of the sea ice modes appears to have little connection to SAM, and only a weak relation to ENSO. The annual frequencies of SOM node occurrences also show a great decadal variability. Node 9 appears mainly prior to 1990;while node 1 occurs mainly after 1990. The decadal variability of nodes 1 and 9 is associated with the asymmetrical SAM, which results from two wavetrains excited over northern Australia and the southeastern Indian Ocean. These results further highlight the importance of under-standing the role of southern mid-to-high latitude atmospheric intrinsic variability in predicting Antarctic summer sea ice variations from synoptic to decadal timescales.

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国家科技期刊平台
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Projection on precipitation frequency of different intensities and precipitation amount in the Lancang-Mekong River basin in the 21st century

SUN ChangXIAO Zi-NiuMinh NGUYEN

162-171页

查看更多>>摘要：In the Lancang‒Mekong River basin (LMRB), agriculture, dominating the local economy, faces increasing challenges in water supply under climate change. The projection of future precipitation in this basin is essential for understanding the challenges. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was applied to project the LMRB precipitation. Comparing with the historical period (1986-2005), we analyzed the changes of both the projected precipitation amount and the frequency of rainless (<0.1 mm d-1), light rain (0.1-10 mm d-1), moderate rain (10-25 mm d-1), heavy rain (25-50 mm d-1), rainstorm (50-100 mm d-1), and heavy rainstorm (>100 mm d-1) for three periods, namely the near-term (2016-2035), mid-term (2046-2065), and long-term (2080-2099). The results indicate that the precipitation amount during the wet season (April-October) is expected to increase in most areas of the basin for the three periods. As for the precipitation during the dry season (November-March), an increase is projected in most areas for the near-term, while an increase in the lower reach of the basin and a decrease in the upper and middle reach for the mid-term and long-term. The precipitation reduction is expected to be greatest in Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, and Yunnan province of China for the mid-term. The frequency of precipitation in different intensities has prominent regional and temporal differences. During the wet season, the days of rainless and light rain are expected to decrease in the middle reach, whereas the days of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm increase. This feature is especially strong in southern Thailand, southern Laos and Cambodia in the near-term and in Laos and Thailand for the mid-term and long-term. During the dry season, there are projected increasing rainless days and decreasing days of precipitation for the other intensities in the middle reach, and opposite in the rest area of the basin. These projected precipitation changes have potential various impact in different parts of the basin. The middle reach would likely face increasing flood risks because of more days of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm, as well as more precipitation. Yunnan, Myanmar, Thailand and Laos would probably be the center of drought threatens during the dry season due to the increment of rainless days and the precipitation reduction. Besides, the seawater intrusion during the dry season in the near-term and mid-term would be more serious as a result of the precipitation decrease in southern Vietnam.

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国家科技期刊平台
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维普

Stationarity in the variability of arid precipitation:A case study of arid Central Asia

YAO Jun-QiangCHEN JingZHANG Tong-WenDILINUER Tuoliewubieke...

172-186页

查看更多>>摘要：Precipitation is particularly scarce in arid Central Asia (CA), and is expected to be severely impacted by future warming, and the assessment of the stationarity of precipitation variability is important for managing surface water resources in this region. In this study, we investigated the statistics of stationarity in the totals and extremes of precipitation in CA based on the longest observational records (1881-2006), tree-ring reconstructed records (1756-2012 and 1760-2015), and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations, applying the autocorrelation function and testing criteria established based on the statistical definitions of stationarity. We analyzed the longest daily pre-cipitation record (Tashkent station, 1881-2006) and found that the autocorrelation coefficient of the precipitation totals (PRCPTOT) and annual maximum 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) were statistically insignificant for all lags, implying stationary behavior. Regionally, nearly all the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Database (GHCN-D) observatory sites (1925-2005) indicated likely stationary behavior. The reconstructed records were also indistinguishable from a random process. For the CMIP5 models, the simulated and projected PRCPTOT closely approximated a purely random process; however, the projected Rx1day maintained non-stationary means in most of the models under the representative concentration pathway (RCPs), implying that extreme events would increase in the future. The mean precipitation changes (△P) can be expressed as an exponential function depending on the length of the successive mean periods (μ) and variance (σ2 ). The△P of the next decade is projected to be within ±14.8％of the previous decades mean annual PRCPTOT over CA. The higher the RCPs, the higher the△P over CA. The results show that the detection and prediction of precipitation change will be challenging in arid CA.

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Hydroclimatic anomalies in China during the post-Laki years and the role of concurring El Ni(n)o

GAO Chao-ChaoYANG Lin-ShanLIU Fei

187-198页

查看更多>>摘要：Arctic is warming at an alarming speed causing accelerated melting of Greenland and rising of sea level, and geoengineering by injecting aerosol into stratosphere (SAI) has been proposed as a backup approach to mitigate warming. However, studies suggest that SAI implementation may have adverse impacts on global especially monsoon precipitation, and Northern Hemisphere high-latitude injections may have dis-proportionally high effects than tropical injections. The 1783-1784 CE Laki eruption in Iceland provides an analogy to study the climatic and the subsequent socioecological responses to Arctic SAI, and China possesses a rich legacy of documents recording climatic disasters and describing their direct impacts on agriculture and society. Using the most recent summer precipitation reconstructions and the documentary data, this study presents a systemic analysis of the hydroclimatic anomalies as well as the societal and ecological consequences in China following the 1783-1784 CE Laki eruption. The results from multi-proxies show severe drought conditions in eastern China during the post-Laki years, accompanied by large scale locust breakout, famine and human pestilence. The drought and associated disasters first emerged in the North China Plain in 1784 CE, intensified and expanded to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 1785 CE. The drought and famine stresses in China are part of the very unsettled climate conditions experienced across the Northern Hemispheric world during the 1780s. By isolating the ENSO-induced precipitation from the reconstructed summer precipitation changes, our results indicate that the Laki eruption did cause severe drought in monsoon China during the next three years. The drought responses in the 1783-1784 were largely counter-balanced by the wetting induced by the concurring strong El Ni(n)o event. The results help to enhance our understanding of the hydroclimate consequence of NH high latitude volcanic eruption in China, and the potential role climate internal variation such as ENSO may play in modifying volcanic-induced perturbation.

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Population exposure to precipitation extremes in the Indus River Basin at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C warming levels

ZHAO Jian-TingSU Bu-DaSanjit Kumar MONDALWANG Yan-Jun...

199-209页

查看更多>>摘要：Adverse effects of extreme events are the major focus of climate change impact studies. Precipitation-related extremes has substantial so-cioeconomic impacts under the changing climate. Quantifying population exposure to precipitation extreme is the fundamental aspect of population risk assessments in the climate hotspot of Indus River Basin. This study investigates the population exposure to precipitation ex-tremes at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C global warmings in the Indus River Basin using daily precipitation data, and projected population under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The Intensity-Area-Duration method was applied to detect the extreme precipitation event by tracing the rainstorm process, calculated based on five downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The exposure of the population is finally estimated by combing SSP1 with 1.5 °C, SSP2 with 2.0 °C, and SSP5 with 3.0 °C warming levels. Results show that warming over the Indus River Basin is projected to be higher than that of the global average. Both the extreme precipitation events and population exposure are projected to increase with warming level. With regard to the reference period (1986-2005), the frequency, duration, and impacted area of extreme precipitation are projected to increase by 13.2％, 7.4％, and 1.6％ annually under 1.5 °C in the Indus River Basin, respectively. Whereas, an additional 0.5 °C and 1.5 °C warming can lead to further increase in the frequency of 16.6％, 17.3％, as well as the duration of 8.6％, 12％, and areal coverage of 2.1％, 5.3％, respectively. The population exposure to extreme precipitation is projected to increase by 72.4％, 122.7％, and 87.6％, respectively, at SSP1 with 1.5 °C, SSP2 with 2.0 °C and SSP5 with 3.0 °C warming levels compare to the reference period. The demographic change is responsible more for the tremendous increment of population exposure in the Indus River Basin. If the population was held constant to the level of 2010, the increase of population exposure would be 4.4％, 8.8％, and 17.6％, respectively, at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C warming levels. Spatially, the prominent increment of population exposure is projected in the central and southwestern Indus River Basin. This study highlights that limiting the increase of temperature to 1.5 °C can substantially reduce population exposure to extreme precipitation events in the Indus River Basin, compared to an additional warming. Simultaneously, urge paid to formulate policies on population growth to reduce future exposure.

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An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

DING Yong-JianLI Chen-YuXiaoming WANGWANG Yan...

210-223页

查看更多>>摘要：Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.

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Suitability projection for Chinese ski areas under future natural and socioeconomic scenarios

DENG JieCHE TaoJIANG TongDAI Li-Yun...

224-239页

查看更多>>摘要：Ski tourism is extremely sensitive to climate change and is also heavily affected by socioeconomic conditions. Although some ski areas are still profitable under current climate and socioeconomic conditions, they will become difficult to operate in the face of rising winter temper-atures, which will result in further economic losses, resource waste and environmental damage. This study projects variability in the suitability of ski area development across China in the coming decades. Natural suitability under three representative concentration pathway emission sce-narios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), socioeconomic suitability under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5) and integrated suitability under four climatic-socioeconomic scenarios (RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SSP3, and RCP8.5-SSP5) are re-ported. Furthermore, the suitability of 731 existing ski areas in China is assessed. The results show a substantial decline in integrated suitability for most regions of China except for some very cold areas, where higher air temperatures will make visitors feel more comfortable and the relatively poor socioeconomic conditions will improve in the 2030s, 2050s and 2090s. The average higher integrated suitability area (integrated suitability values greater than 0.5) under four climatic-socioeconomic scenarios decreases from the current 29.9％-14.4％, 5.0％and 4.5％by the 2030s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Under RCP2.6-SSP1, the higher integrated suitability area is projected to decrease from the current 28.0％-5.2％by the 2050s and then increase to 5.3％by the 2090s. Under RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SSP3, and RCP8.5-SSP5, the higher inte-grated suitability area is projected to continuously decrease from 30.3％, 30.6％and 30.6％in the 2010s to 4.1％, 4.4％and 4.4％in the 2090s, respectively. By the 2090s, 41, 138 and 277 existing ski areas are projected to be closed under RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3/RCP8.5-SSP5, respectively. It is clear that emission pathways and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies will greatly shape the development of China's regional ski tourism.

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Understanding the economic impacts of sea-level rise on tourism prosperity:Conceptualization and panel data evidence

Enn Lun YONG

240-253页

查看更多>>摘要：Sea-level rise is a long-term, intractable problem during which costly, large-scale inundation could occur in many countries;hence, tourism development should take this matter into account because ecology and biodiversity are the fundamentals underpinning tourism performance. This study conceptualizes an economic mechanism of the potential effects of sea-level rise on tourism development based on projected impacts for the 2001-2100 period. Data for 48 developing countries across Africa, Asia, and South America are analyzed. The theoretical framework proposes two hypotheses to determine the extent of contradiction between awareness and destruction in relation to environmental protection for tourism development. From the panel data regression results, although destructive effects are bound to dominate the entire 21st century, awareness is latent and has the potential to reverse the destructive outcomes. With evidence from essential economic elements, this study gives new insights into how severe the impacts of sea-level rise on tourism could be if shared values and adaptation measures to mitigate rising sea level are not substantively promoted around the globe. The new findings show a 0.95 standard-deviation decrease in tourism performance following a 1 standard-deviation increase in the economic loss related sea-level rise. Hence, in the main conclusions, we highlight that the projected effect of inundation-related deterioration on a country's tourism sector appears to be approximately on par with the costs of inundations to its economic growth.

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国家科技期刊平台
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维普

Bibliometric research on the development of climate change in the BRI regions

TAN Xian-ChunZHU Kai-WeiSUN Yu-LingZHAO Wan-Yu...

254-262页

查看更多>>摘要：Climate change is one of the great global challenges. To clarify the research status of climate change in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) regions, the BRI countries can better deal with climate change. This study aims to improve our understanding of the status and trends of research on climate change in the BRI regions. Based on keywords associated with the BRI and climate change, we undertake bibliometric research by collecting 21,225 related SCI/SSCI articles published during 2013-2018. Statistics and analysis revealed the topics and hotspots of research on BRI and climate change. Following findings are distilled. First, although the number of published articles exhibited a rapidly growing trend, their distribution is extremely uneven. Articles were mainly published by institutions from USA, UK, China, India, and Germany, while individual contributions from most BRI countries was less than 1％of the publication volume. Second, existing studies focused on climate change impacts on BRI countries, in addition, climate mitigation and adaptation in BRI regions, especially the assessment of climate change risks and measures and policies in response to climate change, was less watched in the research. Third, not all BRI regions have been examined by researchers. South Africa, South Asia, and West Asia and North Africa are hotspots, while the Pacific and Central Asia are largely neglected. In the future, BRI countries need to improve their research ability on climate change and more attention should be paid to the field of climate mitigation, especially on the assessment of climate change risks, measures, and policies, and BRI countries in the Oceania and Central Asia regions.

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Determinants of financial-risk preparedness for climate change:Case of Fiji

Candauda Arachchige SALIYAKandauda Arachchige Sri WICKRAMA

263-269页

查看更多>>摘要：There is a growing concern among central bankers that climate change poses not only serious environmental problems but also a potential economic and financial crisis. This study first confirms a hypothesized theoretical framework with different dimensions of the overall pre-paredness for climate related financial risk in the Fijian context, and then utilizes this framework to assess the present risk preparedness in Fiji. We tested two Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) models in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) Framework to analyse the survey data. We evaluated these models using several fit indices. The first CFA model included four correlated latent factors defined by multiple indicators (items) reflecting four hypothesized dimensions. The four latent factors were correlated significantly. The second CFA model included a second-order multi-level constructs reflecting overall preparedness along with four constituent dimensions. The four dimensional factors showed sig-nificant and substantial loadings towards overall risk preparedness suggesting that there also exists an overall higher order construct. The model fit indices showed that this second-order CFA model has an acceptable model fit. These results confirm that the four hypothesised dimensions-political leadership (Political ), administrative direction (Administration), international standards (Standards) and supervisory mechanisms (Supervision)-are identifiable and distinct aspects. In addition to the four dimensions, the results suggest that overall preparedness should also be tackled in a multi-level integrated manner. The results also reveal that political initiatives would be futile without proper administrative direction and strong supervisory mechanisms. This theoretical framework can also be used to assess financial systems in other developing countries with similar socioeconomic contexts.

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