首页|Suitability projection for Chinese ski areas under future natural and socioeconomic scenarios

Suitability projection for Chinese ski areas under future natural and socioeconomic scenarios

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
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Ski tourism is extremely sensitive to climate change and is also heavily affected by socioeconomic conditions. Although some ski areas are still profitable under current climate and socioeconomic conditions, they will become difficult to operate in the face of rising winter temper-atures, which will result in further economic losses, resource waste and environmental damage. This study projects variability in the suitability of ski area development across China in the coming decades. Natural suitability under three representative concentration pathway emission sce-narios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), socioeconomic suitability under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5) and integrated suitability under four climatic-socioeconomic scenarios (RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SSP3, and RCP8.5-SSP5) are re-ported. Furthermore, the suitability of 731 existing ski areas in China is assessed. The results show a substantial decline in integrated suitability for most regions of China except for some very cold areas, where higher air temperatures will make visitors feel more comfortable and the relatively poor socioeconomic conditions will improve in the 2030s, 2050s and 2090s. The average higher integrated suitability area (integrated suitability values greater than 0.5) under four climatic-socioeconomic scenarios decreases from the current 29.9％-14.4％, 5.0％and 4.5％by the 2030s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Under RCP2.6-SSP1, the higher integrated suitability area is projected to decrease from the current 28.0％-5.2％by the 2050s and then increase to 5.3％by the 2090s. Under RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SSP3, and RCP8.5-SSP5, the higher inte-grated suitability area is projected to continuously decrease from 30.3％, 30.6％and 30.6％in the 2010s to 4.1％, 4.4％and 4.4％in the 2090s, respectively. By the 2090s, 41, 138 and 277 existing ski areas are projected to be closed under RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3/RCP8.5-SSP5, respectively. It is clear that emission pathways and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies will greatly shape the development of China's regional ski tourism.

SuitabilitySki tourismClimate changeSocioeconomic developmentChina

DENG Jie、CHE Tao、JIANG Tong、DAI Li-Yun

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Heihe Remote Sensing Experimental Research Station,Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou,730000,China

Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100101,China

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100049,China

Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster,School of Geographic Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing,210044,China

Jiangsu Center of Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing,210000,China

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This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaThis work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Foundational Scientific and Technological Work Programs of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China

41690140417713892017FY100501

2021

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

CSCDSCI
影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2021.12(2)
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