首页期刊导航|气候变化研究进展(英文版)
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气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心
气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

秦大河

季刊

1674-9278

accre@cma.gov.cn

010-68400096

100081

北京市中关村南大街46号国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)/Journal Advances in Climate Change ResearchCSCD北大核心SCI
查看更多>>本刊是我国在气候变化研究领域内自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术期刊，其目的是使我国以自然科学和社会科学相结合为特色的气候变化研究在国际上占有一席之地。主要刊登与气候变化相关的跨学科研究进展，包括国内外关于气候变化科学事实、影响及对策研究最新成果。本刊旨在促进气候变化研究的发展，并推动研究成果在经济社会可持续发展、适应和减缓气候变化对策制定、气候政策与环境外交谈判、资源保护和开发等方面的应用。
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    Projected changes in K?ppen-Trewartha climate zones under 1.5-4 ℃ global warming targets over mid-high latitudes of Northern Asia using an ensemble of RegCM4 simulations

    Jie WUXue-Jie GAOXian-Bing TANGFilippo GIORGI...
    185-196页
    查看更多>>摘要：Mid-high latitude Northern Asia is one of the most vulnerable and sensitive areas to global warming,but relatively less studied previously.We used an ensemble of a regional climate model(RegCM4)projections to assess future changes in surface air temperature,precipitation and Köppen-Trewartha(K-T)climate types in Northern Asia under the 1.5-4 ℃ global warming targets.RegCM4 is driven by five CMIP5 global models over an East Asia domain at a grid spacing of 25 km.Validation of the present day(1986-2005)simulations shows that the ensembles of RegCM4(ensR)and driving GCMs(ensG)reproduce the major characters of the observed temperature,precipitation and K-T climate zones reasonably well.Greater and more realistic spatial detail is found in RegCM4 compared to the driving GCMs.A general warming and overall increases in precipitation are projected over the region,with these changes being more pronounced at higher warming levels.The projected warming by ensR shows different spatial patterns,and is in general lower,compared to ensG in most months of the year,while the percentage increases of precipitation are maximum during the cold months.The future changes in K-T climate zones are characterized by a substantial expansion of Dc(temperature oceanic)and retreat of Ec(sub-arctic continental)over the region,reaching～20％under the 4 ℃ warming level.The most notable change in climate types in ensR is found over Japan(～60％),followed by Southern Siberia,Mongolia,and the Korean Peninsula(～40％).The largest change in the K-T climate types is found when increasing from 2 to 3 ℃.The results will help to better assess the impacts of climate change and in implementation of appropriate adaptation measures over the region.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North China simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

    Jia WUZhen-Yu HANXue-Jie GAOZheng-Jia LIU...
    197-210页
    查看更多>>摘要：Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North China is crucial for regional adaptation planning.Previous related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate models.Here,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation effects.Two experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of irrigation.Results showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil moisture.Moreover,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation schemes.Winter wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79 ℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North China,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum temperature.Additionally,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the atmosphere.Further analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and agriculture.Fortunately,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated region.Additionally,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity,which might be an undereastimation caused by the less water use in model simulation.Although winter wheat irrigation does not have notable impact on the climate of the surrounding region,it is an important factor for the local-scale climate.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Multiscale spatiotemporal meteorological drought prediction:A deep learning approach

    Jia-Li ZHANGXiao-Meng HUANGYu-Ze SUN
    211-221页
    查看更多>>摘要：Reliable monitoring and thorough spatiotemporal prediction of meteorological drought are crucial for early warning and decision-making regarding drought-related disasters.The utilisation of multiscale methods is effective for a comprehensive evaluation of drought occurrence and progression,given the complex nature of meteorological drought.Nevertheless,the nonlinear spatiotemporal features of meteorological droughts,influenced by various climatological,physical and environmental factors,pose significant challenges to integrated prediction that considers multiple indicators and time scales.To address these constraints,we introduce an innovative deep learning framework based on the shifted window transformer,designed for executing spatiotemporal prediction of meteorological drought across multiple scales.We formulate four prediction indicators using the standardized precipitation index and the standard precipitation evaporation index as core methods for drought definition using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset.These indicators span time scales of approximately 30 d and one season.Short-term indicators capture more anomalous variations,whereas long-term indicators attain comparatively higher accuracy in predicting future trends.We focus on the East Asian region,notable for its diverse climate conditions and intricate terrains,to validate the model's efficacy in addressing the com-plexities of nonlinear spatiotemporal prediction.The model's performance is evaluated from diverse spatiotemporal viewpoints,and practical application values are analysed by representative drought events.Experimental results substantiate the effectiveness of our proposed model in providing accurate multiscale predictions and capturing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought.Each of the four drought in-dicators accurately delineates specific facets of the meteorological drought trend.Moreover,three representative drought events,namely flash drought,sustained drought and severe drought,underscore the significance of selecting appropriate prediction indicators to effectively denote different types of drought events.This study provides methodological and technological support for using a deep learning approach in mete-orological drought prediction.Such findings also demonstrate prediction issues related to natural hazards in regions with scarce observational data,complex topography and diverse microclimate systems.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Reliability ensemble averaging reduces surface wind speed projection uncertainties in the 21st century over China

    Zheng-Tai ZHANGChang-Ai XU
    222-229页
    查看更多>>摘要：Accurate prediction of future surface wind speed(SWS)changes is the basis of scientific planning for wind turbines.Most studies have projected SWS changes in the 21st century over China on the basis of the multi-model ensemble(MME)of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).However,the simulation capability for SWS varies greatly in CMIP6 multi-models,so the MME results still have large uncertainties.In this study,we used the reliability ensemble averaging(REA)method to assign each model different weights according to their performances in simulating historical SWS changes and project the SWS under different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)in 2015-2099.The results indicate that REA considerably improves the SWS simulation capacity of CMIP6,eliminating the overestimation of SWS by the MME and increasing the simulation capacity of spatial distribution.The spatial correlations with observations increased from 0.56 for the MME to 0.85 for REA.Generally,REA could eliminate the overestimation of the SWS by 33％in 2015-2099.Except for southeastern China,the SWS generally decreases over China in the near term(2020-2049)and later term(2070-2099),particularly under high-emission scenarios.The SWS reduction projected by REA is twice as high as that by the MME in the near term,reaching-4％to-3％.REA predicts a larger area of increased SWS in the later term,which expands from southeastern China to eastern China.This study helps to reduce the projected SWS uncertainties.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Ensemble projections of climate and streamflow in a typical basin of semi-arid steppes in Mongolian Plateau of 2021-2100

    Hang PANJian-Ping TANGLiang CHENGMan-Chun LI...
    230-243页
    查看更多>>摘要：The Kherlen River is the main water source for Hulun Lake,the largest lake in northern China.Due to reduced inflow from the Kherlen River,Hulun Lake experienced rapid shrinkage at the beginning of the 21st century,posing a serious threat to the ecological security of northern China.However,there is still a significant lack of projections regarding future climate change and its hydrological response in the Kherlen River basin.This study analyzed the projected climate and streamflow changes in the Kherlen River basin,a vital yet vulnerable international semi-arid steppes type basin.A combination of multi-model ensemble projection techniques,and the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT)model was employed to examine the spatio-temporal changes in precipitation,temperature,streamflow,and the associated uncertainties in the basin.The temperature(an increase of 1.84-6.42 ℃)and the precipitation(an increase of 15.0-46.0 mm)of Kherlen River basin are projected to increase by 2100,leading to a rise in streamflow(1.08-4.78 m3 s-1).The upstream of the Kherlen River exhibits remarkable increasing trends in precipitation,which has a dominant influence on streamflow of Kherlen River.Noteworthy increases in streamflow are observed in April,August,September,and October compared to the reference period(1971-2000).These findings suggest a partial alleviation of water scarcity in the Kherlen River,but also an increased likelihood of hydrological extreme events.The projected temperature increase in the Kherlen River basin exhibits the smallest uncertainty,while more pronounced uncertainties are found in precipitation and streamflow.The spread among the results of CMIP6 models is greater than that of CMIP5 models,with lower signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)values for temperature,precipitation,and streamflow.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    How the enhanced East Asian summer monsoon regulates total gross primary production in eastern China

    Ming-Yu HANYong ZHANGJing PENG
    244-252页
    查看更多>>摘要：Recognizing the relationship between gross primary production(GPP)and precipitation in eastern China,the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)plays a crucial role in shaping GPP.Despite confirmation of the strong link between EASM and GPP,there remains a notable research gap in understanding the specific impact of the EASM on GPP in different regions of eastern China.Here we used simulations from Trends in Net Land-Atmosphere Carbon Exchanges(TRENDY)models from 1951 to 2010 and divided eastern China into five subregions for the study.We also used the New East Asian Summer Monsoon Index(NEWI)as a quantitative metric to distinguish between periods of strong and weak EASM.Building on this,this study aims to investigate the response of GPP in different subregions of eastern China.Regionally,under strengthened EASM years(1954,1957,1965,1969,1977,1980,1983,1987,1993 and 1998),East China experienced the most pronounced increase in GPP at 12±21(mean±1 sigma)gC m-2 mon-1 compared to the weak EASM years(1958,1961,1972,1973,1978,1981,1985,1994,1997 and 2004).In contrast,Southwest China showed a decline in GPP at-4±10 gC m-2 mon-1.Moreover,GPP also increased in Northeast and North China when EASM strengthened,while South China showed a decline in GPP.This indicated that GPP changed with monsoon intensity.According to the mechanism analysis,during strong EASM,there was intense moisture convergence through alterations in the atmospheric circulation field over East China and abundant precipitation,which further contributed to the increase in GPP.Downward solar radiation in Southwest China decreased with EASM enhancement,which suppressed GPP and hindered vegetation growth.Overall,the results highlight the importance of accurately predicting the impact of different EASM intensities of regional carbon fluxes.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Machine learning-based predictions of current and future susceptibility to retrogressive thaw slumps across the Northern Hemisphere

    Jing LUOGuo-An YINFu-Jun NIUTian-Chun DONG...
    253-264页
    查看更多>>摘要：Retrogressive thaw slumps(RTSs)caused by the thawing of ground ice on permafrost slopes have dramatically increased and become a common permafrost hazard across the Northern Hemisphere during previous decades.However,a gap remains in our comprehensive under-standing of the spatial controlling factors,including the climate and terrain,that are conducive to these RTSs at a global scale.Using machine learning methodologies,we mapped the current and future RTSs susceptibility distributions by incorporating a range of environmental factors and RTSs inventories.We identified freezing-degree days and maximum summer rainfall as the primary environmental factors affecting RTSs susceptibility.The final ensemble susceptibility map suggests that regions with high to very high susceptibility could constitute(11.6±0.78)％of the Northern Hemisphere's permafrost region.When juxtaposed with the current(2000-2020)RTSs susceptibility map,the total area with high to very high susceptibility could witness an increase ranging from(31.7±0.65)％(SSP585)to(51.9±0.73)％(SSP126)by the 2041-2060.The insights gleaned from this study not only offer valuable implications for engineering applications across the Northern Hemisphere,but also provide a long-term insight into the potential change of RTSs in permafrost regions in response to climate change.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Changes in global land surface frozen ground and freeze-thaw processes during 1950-2020 based on ERA5-Land data

    Yong YANGRen-Sheng CHENYong-Jian DINGHong-Yuan LI...
    265-274页
    查看更多>>摘要：Frozen ground(FG)plays an important role in global and regional climates and environments through changes in land freeze-thaw pro-cesses,which have been conducted mainly in different regions.However,the changes in land surface freeze-thaw processes under climate change on a global scale are still unclear.Based on ERA5-Land hourly land skin temperature data,this study evaluated changes in the global FG area,global land surface first freeze date(FFD),last freeze date(LFD)and frost-free period(FFP)from 1950 to 2020.The results show that the current FG areas(1991-2020 mean)in the Northern Hemisphere(NH),Southern Hemisphere(SH),and globe are 68.50 x 106,9.03 x 106,and 77.53 x 106 km2,which account for 72.4％,26.8％,and 60.4％of the exposed land(excluding glaciers,ice sheets,and water bodies)in the NH,SH and the globe,respectively;further,relative to 1951-1980,the FG area decreased by 1.9％,8.8％,and 2.8％,respectively.Seasonally FG at lower latitudes degrades to intermittently FG,and intermittently FG degrades to non-frozen ground,which caused the global FG boundary to retreat to higher latitudes from 1950 to 2020.The annual FG areas in the NH,SH,and globe all show significant decreasing trends(p＜0.05)from 1950 to 2020 at-0.32 x 106,-0.22 x 106,and-0.54 x 106 km2 per decade,respectively.The FFP prolongation in the NH is mainly influenced by LFD advance,while in the SH it is mainly controlled by FFD delay.The prolongation trend of FFP in the NH(1.34 d per decade)is larger than that in the SH(1.15 d per decade).
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Degradation of warm permafrost and talik formation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 2006-2021

    Qi-Hang MEIJi CHENYou-Qian LIUShou-Hong ZHANG...
    275-284页
    查看更多>>摘要：Permafrost is degrading globally,particularly those with low thermal stability on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,owing to climate change.However,the inadequacy of direct research on permafrost degradation based on in-situ monitoring limits the prediction of permafrost degra-dation and engineering practices.This study explored the processes and modes of permafrost degradation into talik by analyzing ground temperature data from five points in the hinterland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2006 to 2021.The results showed that the degradation of the warm permafrost layer with a geothermal gradient of zero occurred simultaneously in the top and bottom directions.The rate of permafrost degradation from the top down and bottom up increase during the degradation process,but the increase of the former is more drastic after the formation of thawed interlayer.Additionally,the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway changed the degradation modes of the permafrost in adjacent natural sites through horizontal heat transfer,particularly after through talik formation under the embankment.The findings suggest that taking countermeasures before or immediately after forming thawed interlayer is more effective.When evaluating the thermal impact of projects in warm permafrost regions,special attention should be given to the horizontal heat transfer process that may result from the formation of a through talik.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Environmental factors controlling soil warming and wetting during 2000-2020 in permafrost and non-permafrost regions across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

    Guo-An YINJing LUOFu-Jun NIUMing-Hao LIU...
    285-296页
    查看更多>>摘要：The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)has experienced rapid environmental changes,including climate warming and wetting,since the 1980s.These environmental changes significantly impact the shallow soil hydrothermal conditions,which have key roles in land-atmosphere feedback and ecosystem functions.However,the spatial variations and responses of soil hydrothermal conditions to environmental changes over the QTP with permafrost(PF)and seasonal frost(SF)remain unclear.In this study,we investigated the spatial variations in soil temperature(ST)and soil moisture(SM)changes over the QTP from 2000 to 2020 using 99 in-situ sites with observations at 4 depths(i.e.10,40,100 and 200 cm).The main environmental controlling factors were further identified using a calibrated statistical model.Results showed that significant(p＜0.05)soil warming occurred at multiple soil layers during 2000-2020 with a wide variation(i.e.0.033-0.039 ℃ per year on average),whereas the warming rates at PF sites were two times greater than those at SF sites.In addition,the soil wetting rate was high over the SF region,whereas the soil wetting rate was low over the PF region.Aside from air temperature,changes in thawing degree days and solar radiation(Srad)contributed most to soil warming in the PF region,whereas changes in rainfall,Srad and evaporation(EVA)have been identified as the key factors in the SF region.As for soil wetting,changes in snowfall,freezing degree days and vegetation have noticeable nonlinear effects over the PF region,whereas changes in EVA,Srad and rainfall highlighted distinct linear and nonlinear effects in the SF region.These findings enhance our un-derstanding of the hydrothermal impacts of future environmental changes over the QTP.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据