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期刊信息/Journal information
气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心
气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

秦大河

季刊

1674-9278

accre@cma.gov.cn

010-68400096

100081

北京市中关村南大街46号国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)/Journal Advances in Climate Change ResearchCSCD北大核心SCI
查看更多>>本刊是我国在气候变化研究领域内自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术期刊,其目的是使我国以自然科学和社会科学相结合为特色的气候变化研究在国际上占有一席之地。主要刊登与气候变化相关的跨学科研究进展,包括国内外关于气候变化科学事实、影响及对策研究最新成果。本刊旨在促进气候变化研究的发展,并推动研究成果在经济社会可持续发展、适应和减缓气候变化对策制定、气候政策与环境外交谈判、资源保护和开发等方面的应用。
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    Critical environmental factors affecting mountain geohazards in a warming climate in Southwest China

    Xiao-Ming XUPeng CUIXue-Qin ZHANG
    695-707页
    查看更多>>摘要:Environmental factors are essential input variables for susceptibility assessment models of mountain geohazards.However,the existing literature provides a limited understanding of the relative contribution of these factors to the occurrence of geohazards with a warming climate,posing tremendous challenges for risk management in mountainous areas.Ya'an city is susceptible to hazards because of its steep terrain,abundant precipitation and active seismic activity.In this regard,we utilise the GeoDetector model to extract critical environmental factors affecting the spatial patterns of mountain geohazards(i.e.,landslide,debris flow and rockfall)in Southwest China.The analysis indicates that the factors with the highest explanatory power for the spatial distribution of landslides,debris flows,and rockfalls are soil property,extreme precipitation and extreme temperature,respectively.Notably,we revealed the synergistic effects among factors given their larger q-value than individual ones.We further explored the responses of mountain geohazards to climate change,including the rising temperature and precipitation,because the frequent occurrence of mountain geohazards is closely related to a warming climate.The variation in snow water equivalent caused by antecedent snowfall and snowdrifts acts as a crucial indicator for geohazards,highlighting the significance of snow and wind observations in meteorological nowcasting and disaster prewarning.We disclose the phenomenon of the geohazard hysteresis to the precipitation peak resulting from the top-down(i.e.,precipitation-runoff and surface-deep soil moisture)peak shifts.Our work is expected to enhance the precision of susceptibility assessment models and the reliability of short-term forecasts for mountain geohazards.

    Substantial increase of heat-induced labor and economic loss in China under rapid economic and environmental temperature growth

    Bo-Wen CHUJian-Feng LUOKe-Xin WANGZhen-Cheng XING...
    708-716页
    查看更多>>摘要:Exposure to heat stress causes diminished work performance and leads to economic loss.In the last two decades,China has experienced both rapid economic development and environmental warming;however,the spatiotemporal variations of association between environmental heat and labor loss have been rarely investigated behind this double impact.Here,we evaluated the variation in China's heat-induced labor productivity loss and related economic cost from 2001 to 2019 and investigated the effect of economic development and regional warming.We found that decline in labor productivity because of heat stress increased significantly(p<0.05 for heavy-intensity work),and the corresponding economic loss also exhibited a drastic increase by 6-to 9-fold.The relative economic loss showed a slight but nonsignificant increase with an average value of 0.54%of the annual total earnings.At the sub-regional and sectoral level,adverse effects were more prominent in the southeast region,and the secondary industry sectors,such as construction and manufacturing,contributed to larger proportions of economic losses.The transformation of industrial structure made economic sectors more vulnerable to heat exposure,and increasingly preventive effects of air-conditioning use were noted on economic damage due to heat-induced productivity decline(36.0%relative economic benefits in 2019 compared to 9.7%in 2001).Our findings could provide a deep insight into heat burden on occupational health and heat adaptation strategies regionally under climate change,especially in developing areas with higher temperature and humidity environment.

    Association between heat and upper urinary tract stones morbidity and medical costs:A study in the subtropical humid climate zone

    Chen-Lu YANGJun-Zhe BAOPeng BIYa-Dong ZHANG...
    717-724页
    查看更多>>摘要:Urolithiasis is a heat-specific disease.Exploring heat-related urolithiasis susceptibility subtypes,economic burden,and modifying factors could assist governments in targeting interventions to reduce the heat-related health risks of urolithiasis morbidity.We collected data on 23,492 patients with upper urinary tract stones(main subtypes of urolithiasis)from 2013 to 2017 in Nanjing,China.We adopted generalized additive quasi-Poisson models to examine the associations between daily mean temperatures and morbidity of upper urinary tract stones,while generalized additive Gaussian models were used to explore the relationships between temperatures and log-transformed medical costs.We examined the modification effects of disease subtypes(kidney and ureteral calculus),sex,and age through stratified analyses and the modifi-cation effects of other meteorological factors by introducing interaction terms in the models.We found that short-term summer heat exposure has a statistically significant effect on ureteral calculus morbidity but not on kidney calculus morbidity.For ureter calculus,a 1 ℃ temperature increase was associated with a 4.36%(95%confidence interval[CI]:1.94%,6.83%)increase in daily hospitalization and a 5.44%(95%CI:2.71%,8.25%)increase in daily medical costs.The attributable fraction associated with heat(greater than the median value of daily mean temperature,26.8 ℃)was 7.85%(95%empirical confidence interval[eCI]:3.64%,11.44%)for hospitalization and 9.36%(95%eCI:4.91%,13.14%)for medical costs.The effects of heat on ureter calculus morbidity were significantly higher among the males and those with high sunshine duration than females and those with low sunshine duration.Short-term summer heat exposure was associated with increased morbidity and medical costs of ureteral calculus.Relevant government organizations should take effective intervention measures,including community health education,to reduce the health hazards and economic losses caused by heat.

    Mitigation of black carbon emissions could immediately reduce 6.3%of glacier melting in the Qilian Mountains

    Ji-Zu CHENWen-Tao DUShi-Chang KANGXiang QIN...
    725-736页
    查看更多>>摘要:Global warming in tandem with surface albedo reduction caused by black carbon(BC)deposition on glaciers accelerated glacier melting;however,their respective contributions remain unclear.Glaciers in the Qilian Mountains are crucial for the development of oases in the Hexi Corridor;however,their area has decreased by more than 20%over the past half-century.Thus,this study developed a dynamic deposition model for light-absorbing particles(LAPs),coupled with a surface energy and mass balance model.We comprehensively assessed the effects of BC and warming on the melting of a typical glacier in the Qilian Mountains based on the coupled model.BC on the glacier surface caused 13.1%of annual glacier-wide melting,of which directly deposited atmospheric BC reduced the surface albedo by 0.02 and accounted for 9.1%of glacier melting.The air temperature during 2000-2010 has increased by 1.5 ℃ relative to that during the 1950s,accounting for 51.9%of current glacier melting.Meanwhile,BC emission have increased by 4.6 times compared to those of the early Industrial Revolution recorded in an ice core,accounting conservatively for 6.3%of current glacier melting.Mitigating BC emissions has a limited influence on current glacier melting;however,in the long-term,mitigation should exert a noteworthy impact on glacier melting through the self-purification of glaciers.

    Sorely reducing emissions of non-methane short-lived climate forcers will worsen compound flood-heatwave extremes in the Northern Hemisphere

    Ying-Fang LIZhi-Li WANGYa-Dong LEIXiao-Chao YU...
    737-750页
    查看更多>>摘要:Non-methane short-lived climate forcer(SLCF)or near-term climate forcer(NTCF)emissions,as a significant driver of climate change,can be reduced to improve air quality.These reductions may contribute to additional warming of the climate system in the short term,thereby strongly affecting the likelihood of climate extremes.However,there has been no quantitative assessment of the impact of non-methane SLCF mitigation on compound flood-heatwave extremes(CFHEs).This study quantitatively investigates the changes in future(2031-2050 versus 1995-2014)CFHEs and the resulting population exposure in the Northern Hemisphere(NH)due to non-methane SLCF reductions.We used multi-model ensemble simulations under two future scenarios from the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project(AerChemMIP)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).The two future scenarios share the same greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions but have weak(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)3-7.0)versus strong(SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF)levels of air quality control measures.The results show that future non-methane SLCF reductions during 2031-2050 results in about a 7.3%±2.3%increase in grid exposure to CFHEs in the NH relative to the period 1995-2014.The frequency,intensity,and duration of CFHEs increase by varying degrees.During the period 2031-2050,the frequency of CFHEs across the NH increases by 2.9±0.9 events per decade due to non-methane SLCF reductions.The increases in CFHE frequency are more pronounced in East Asia,South Asia,Siberia,and northern and eastern North America.In East and South Asia,the in-tensities of both heatwaves and floods corresponding to CFHEs increase markedly,where heatwave magnitude(HWM)increases by 0.3±0.2 K in East Asia and weighted average precipitation(WAP)increases by 18.3%±15.3%and 12.0%±4.5%in East Asia and South Asia,respectively.In other regions,rising temperatures dominate the increase in CFHEs.With regard to the duration of CFHEs,future reductions in non-methane SLCFs increases the duration of CFHEs in the NH by 0.3±0.1 d.Regionally,the sensitivity of CFHE frequency to global warming caused by non-methane SLCF mitigation is 1.2-1.9 times higher than that caused by GHG forcing.Non-methane SLCFs results in NH-averaged increases in population exposure to CFHEs of(5.0±2.0)× 105 person·event in the period 2031-2050.This study emphasizes the importance of considering the impacts of cleaner air in future responses to compound extremes and corresponding societal planning.

    Characteristics of life-cycle carbon dioxide emissions of arterial highway maintenance and the influencing factors

    Yao WANGYuan-Qing WANGShu-Juan JISi-Jia SUN...
    751-765页
    查看更多>>摘要:With the focus of highway development transitioning from construction to maintenance,a comprehensive understanding of the characteristics and influencing factors of carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions from highway maintenance activities is crucial for formulating effective strategies to promote the low-carbon development of road infrastructure.However,the quantitative relationships between CO2 emissions from highway maintenance schemes and factors such as pavement deterioration,traffic volume,and road grade remain unclear owing to a lack of compre-hensive,multi-category,and real data.Using real maintenance data from 340 arterial highway segments in China,this study conducts the life cycle assessment(LCA)to estimate CO2 emissions from maintenance activities and examines the primary emission sources among various structural layers and materials.Furthermore,multiple linear regression(MLR)analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of traffic volume,road grade,and pavement deterioration on CO2 emissions from maintenance projects,and factors influencing the early-stage degradation of pavement performance.The results demonstrate that average CO2 emissions from heavy rehabilitation projects are 6.97 times higher than those from medium rehabilitation projects.Emissions from heavy rehabilitation projects exhibit a significantly negative linear relationship with the riding quality index(RQI)before maintenance(p<0.05),and emissions from medium rehabilitation projects show a significant negative linear relationship with the pavement condition index(PCI)before maintenance(p<0.05).Emissions from heavy and medium rehabilitation projects are significantly positively correlated with heavy vehicle traffic volume before maintenance(p<0.05).Moreover,the early-stage degradation of PCI after heavy rehabilitation and RQI after medium rehabilitation exhibit significantly negative linear relationships with their respective in-dicators before maintenance(p<0.05).The early-stage degradation of RQI after heavy rehabilitation is significantly positively correlated with CO2 emissions from the base course and cushion layers(p<0.05).The findings emphasize that timely maintenance and reduction of CO2 emissions from asphalt mixing equipment are essential for mitigating emissions from road maintenance.This study offers valuable insights for advancing the low-carbon development of highways in temperate regions.