首页|Critical environmental factors affecting mountain geohazards in a warming climate in Southwest China
Critical environmental factors affecting mountain geohazards in a warming climate in Southwest China
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国家科技期刊平台
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Environmental factors are essential input variables for susceptibility assessment models of mountain geohazards.However,the existing literature provides a limited understanding of the relative contribution of these factors to the occurrence of geohazards with a warming climate,posing tremendous challenges for risk management in mountainous areas.Ya'an city is susceptible to hazards because of its steep terrain,abundant precipitation and active seismic activity.In this regard,we utilise the GeoDetector model to extract critical environmental factors affecting the spatial patterns of mountain geohazards(i.e.,landslide,debris flow and rockfall)in Southwest China.The analysis indicates that the factors with the highest explanatory power for the spatial distribution of landslides,debris flows,and rockfalls are soil property,extreme precipitation and extreme temperature,respectively.Notably,we revealed the synergistic effects among factors given their larger q-value than individual ones.We further explored the responses of mountain geohazards to climate change,including the rising temperature and precipitation,because the frequent occurrence of mountain geohazards is closely related to a warming climate.The variation in snow water equivalent caused by antecedent snowfall and snowdrifts acts as a crucial indicator for geohazards,highlighting the significance of snow and wind observations in meteorological nowcasting and disaster prewarning.We disclose the phenomenon of the geohazard hysteresis to the precipitation peak resulting from the top-down(i.e.,precipitation-runoff and surface-deep soil moisture)peak shifts.Our work is expected to enhance the precision of susceptibility assessment models and the reliability of short-term forecasts for mountain geohazards.
Mountain geohazardsEnvironmental factorsClimate changeGeoDetectorSouthwest China
Xiao-Ming XU、Peng CUI、Xue-Qin ZHANG
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Key Lab of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China
b University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
c China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences and Higher Education Commission,Islamabad 45320,Pakistan
国家科技期刊平台
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