期刊,气象学报（英文版） 2024年卷3期_国家学术搜索

期刊信息/Journal information

气象学报（英文版）

中国气象学会

主办单位：中国气象学会

主　　编：丁一汇

出版周期：双月刊

国际刊号：0894-0525

电子邮箱：cmsams@163.com

电　　话：010-68407634

邮政编码：100081

地　　址：北京中关村南大街46号

气象学报（英文版）/Journal Acta Meteorologica SinicaCSCDCSTPCD北大核心SCI

查看更多>>中国气象学会的官方刊物《气象学报》于1925年7月创刊。英文版于1987年9月创刊，1988年至2008年出版季刊，2009年改为双月刊。

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Quantitative Applications of Weather Satellite Data for Nowcasting:Progress and Challenges

Jun LIJing ZHENGBo LIMin MIN...

399-413页

查看更多>>摘要：Monitoring and predicting highly localized weather events over a very short-term period,typically ranging from minutes to a few hours,are very important for decision makers and public action.Nowcasting these events usually re-lies on radar observations through monitoring and extrapolation.With advanced high-resolution imaging and sound-ing observations from weather satellites,nowcasting can be enhanced by combining radar,satellite,and other data,while quantitative applications of those data for nowcasting are advanced through using machine learning techniques.Those applications include monitoring the location,impact area,intensity,water vapor,atmospheric instability,pre-cipitation,physical properties,and optical properties of the severe storm at different stages(pre-convection,initiation,development,and decaying),identification of storm types(wind,snow,hail,etc.),and predicting the occurrence and evolution of the storm.Satellite observations can provide information on the environmental characteristics in the pre-convection stage and are very useful for situational awareness and storm warning.This paper provides an overview of recent progress on quantitative applications of satellite data in nowcasting and its challenges,and future perspectives are also addressed and discussed.

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Differences in Variations of Long-Lived and Short-Lived Summer Heat Waves during 1981-2020 over Eastern China and Their Corresponding Large-Scale Circulation Anomalies

Liqun JIHaishan CHEN

414-436页

查看更多>>摘要：Using daily maximum temperature(Tmax)data from 516 observation stations in eastern China from 1981 to 2020,this study employed a relative threshold method to define short-and long-lived heat waves(HWs)by considering re-gional climate differences to investigate the spatial characteristics and evolution of large-scale circulation during summer HWs.The results demonstrated spatial disparities in the frequency distribution of HWs of different dura-tions and differences in the magnitude of duration and intensity between short-and long-lived HWs.Empirical ortho-gonal function analysis revealed three dominant spatial modes for both short-and long-lived HWs.The first mode showed that short-lived HWs occur prominently in both northern and southern regions,whereas long-lived HWs mainly occur in the northern region.The second mode was characterized by a meridional dipole pattern in both cases.The third mode exhibited a quadrupole pattern for short-lived HWs and a tripole pattern for long-lived HWs.Differ-ences in the center locations of anomalies in the 500-hPa geopotential height and 850-hPa wind fields significantly influenced the temperature and precipitation anomaly distribution of typical HWs by affecting the warm column in the lower troposphere,cloud distribution,and moisture transport.Moreover,the atmospheric circulation evolution processes of typical HWs associated with the different modes of long-and short-lived HWs were linked to distinct teleconnection patterns.During the three modes of long-lived(short-lived)HWs,there was stronger(weaker)wave flux activity with multiple(single)propagation paths.Stronger westward Atlantic wave train activity at 300 hPa triggered the synergistic action of meridional and zonal wave fluxes,favoring the strengthening and maintenance of positive anomalies in geopotential height of 500 hPa.This may have contributed to the formation of long-lived HWs.These findings provide valuable insights to enhance our understanding and prediction of summer HWs.

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The Effect of Moisture in Different Altitude Layers on the Eastward Propagation of MJO

Xiaoyu ZHUZhong ZHONGYimin ZHUYunying LI...

437-452页

查看更多>>摘要：In this study,driven by ERA5 reanalysis data,the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)version 4.0 was used to investigate the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO)in the tropical atmosphere during December-February(DJF)of 2007/2008.The experiment with 11 cumulus parameterization schemes respectively shows that the Grell 3D scheme is one of several worse ones in describing MJO activities.In addition,still by use of the Grell 3D scheme,four nudging assimilation experiments for water vapor in all model vertical layers(Ndg_all),lower layers(Ndg_low),middle layers(Ndg_mid),and upper layers(Ndg_upp)were conducted.It is found that when the water vapor in the model approaches to the observed value,the model performance for MJO activities is improved greatly.Among the four nudging simulations,Ndg_all certainly performs best.Although Ndg_mid is im-portant for the MJO-filtered profiles related to moisture,Ndg_low and Ndg_upp exhibit superiority to Ndg_mid in simulating MJO eastward propagation.Ndg_low has advantages when MJO features are represented by zonal wind at 850 hPa and precipitation because the lower-level MJO-filtered moisture is conducive to the existence of lower-level condensational heating to the east of the MJO convective center.Ndg_upp performs better when describing the MJO eastward propagation features by outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)since it can capture the moisture and cloud top temperature of deep convection associated with MJO,as well as front Walker cell.These results suggest that the lower-level moisture is more important in regulating the MJO eastward propagation,and the observed maximum MJO-filtered moisture in the middle troposphere might be a phenomenon accompanying the MJO deep convection,but not a factor controlling its eastward propagation.

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Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006-2021

Yiqiu YUJie WUYihe FANGChunyu ZHAO...

453-468页

查看更多>>摘要：As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia,the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)substantially influences weather and climate in this region.So far,systematic assessment on the per-formance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried out.Based on the Beijing Climate Centre(BCC)and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Pre-diction Project,this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal timescale.The results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the sea-sonal variations in the intensity,active days,and spatial distribution of NCCVs;however,the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the observations.Diagnostic analysis shows that the differ-ences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S models.Nonethe-less,in the deterministic forecasts,BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4-5(5-6)pentads,and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1-2 pentads longer than that of individual members.In the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities,BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days,respectively;both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events,with better performance in winter than in summer.The results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

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A 10-yr Rainfall and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatology over Coastal and Inland Regions of Guangdong,China during the Pre-Summer Rainy Season

Yuqing RUANRudi XIAXinghua BAODong ZHENG...

469-488页

查看更多>>摘要：A comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainfall and lightning in coastal and in-land areas of Guangdong Province of China during the pre-summer rainy season(PSRS)from 2008 to 2017 reveals distinct patterns.In the inland target region(ITR),rainfall is concentrated in the central and eastern mountainous areas.It exhibits a bimodal diurnal variation,with peaks in the afternoon and morning.The afternoon peak becomes more pronounced during the post-monsoon-onset period because of the increased rainfall frequency.Similarly,in the coastal target region(CTR),rainfall concentrates around mountainous peripheries.However,CTR's rainfall is weaker than ITR's during the pre-monsoon-onset period,primarily associated with the lower-level moisture outflow in CTR,but it strengthens significantly during the post-monsoon-onset period owing to enhanced moisture inflow.CTR's di-urnal rainfall variation transitions from bimodal to a single broad peak during the post-monsoon-onset period,influ-enced by changes in both rainfall frequency and intensity.In contrast to rainfall,the spatiotemporal distribution of lightning centers remains relatively stable during the PSRS.The strongest center is located over ITR's plains west of the rainfall center,with a secondary center in the western plains of CTR.Lightning activity significantly increases during the post-monsoon-onset period,particularly in ITR,primarily because of the increased lightning hours.The di-urnal lightning flash density and lightning hours show a single afternoon peak in the two target regions,and the tim-ing of the peak in ITR is approximately two hours later than in CTR.Composite circulation analysis indicates that during early morning,the lower atmosphere is nearly neutral in stratification.The advected warm,moist,unstable air-flow,combined with topography,favors convection initiation.In the afternoon,solar radiation increases thermal in-stability,further enhancing the convection frequency and intensity.Improved moisture and thermal conditions con-tribute to an increase in rainfall and lightning during the post-monsoon-onset period.Moreover,the occurrence of lightning is found to be closely linked to the most unstable convective available potential energy,low-level vertical wind shear,and updraft intensity.

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Raindrop Size Distributions in the Zhengzhou Extreme Rainfall Event on 20 July 2021:Temporal-Spatial Variability and Implications for Radar QPE

Liman CUIHaoran LIAifang SUYang ZHANG...

489-503页

查看更多>>摘要：In this study,a regional Parsivel OTT disdrometer network covering urban Zhengzhou and adjacent areas is em-ployed to investigate the temporal-spatial variability of raindrop size distributions(DSDs)in the Zhengzhou extreme rainfall event on 20 July 2021.The rain rates observed by disdrometers and rain gauges from six operational sites are in good agreement,despite significant site-to-site variations of 24-h accumulated rainfall ranging from 198.3 to 624.1 mm.The Parsivel OTT observations show prominent temporal-spatial variations of DSDs,and the most drastic change was registered at Zhengzhou Station where the record-breaking hourly rainfall of 201.9 mm over 1500-1600 LST(local standard time)was reported.This hourly rainfall is characterized by fairly high concentrations of large raindrops,and the mass-weighted raindrop diameter generally increases with the rain rate before reaching the equilibrium state of DSDs with the rain rate of about 50 mm h-1.Besides,polarimetric radar observations show the highest differential phase shift(Kdp)and differential reflectivity(Zdr)near surface over Zhengzhou Station from 1500 to 1600 LST.In light of the remarkable temporal-spatial variability of DSDs,a reflectivity-grouped fitting approach is proposed to optimize the reflectivity-rain rate(Z-R)parameterization for radar quantitative precipitation estima-tion(QPE),and the rain gauge measurements are used for validation.The results show an increase of mean bias ratio from 0.57 to 0.79 and a decrease of root-mean-square error from 23.69 to 18.36 for the rainfall intensity above 20.0 mm h-1,as compared with the fixed Z-R parameterization.This study reveals the drastic temporal-spatial vari-ations of rain microphysics during the Zhengzhou extreme rainfall event and warrants the promise of using reflectiv-ity-grouped fitting Z-R relationships for radar QPE of such events.

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Improved Simulation of Summer Heavy Rainfall over Beijing and Henan by the YHGSM with Updated Subgrid Orographic Parameters

Yingjie WANGJianping WUKaijun REN

504-529页

查看更多>>摘要：In numerical weather prediction(NWP),the parameterization of orographic drag plays an important role in repres-enting subgrid orographic effects.The subgrid orographic parameters are the key input to the parameterization of oro-graphic drag.Currently,the subgrid orographic parameters in most NWP models were produced based on elevation datasets generated many years ago,with a coarse resolution and low quality.In this paper,using the latest high-qual-ity elevation data and considering the applicable scale range of the subgrid orographic parameters,we construct the orographic parameters,including the subgrid orographic standard deviation,anisotropy,orientation,and slope,that are required as input to the orographic gravity wave drag(OGWD)parameterization.Finally,we introduce the newly constructed orographic parameters into the Yin-He Global Spectral Model(YHGSM),optimize the description of the orographic effect in the model,and improve the simulation of two typical heavy rainfall events in Beijing and Henan.

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Character of Convective Systems Producing Short-Term Heavy Precipitation in Central China Revealed by Kilometer and Minute Interval Observations

Zitong CHENYunying LIZhiwei ZHANGJing SUN...

530-541页

查看更多>>摘要：Accurate forecasting of heavy precipitation in central China is still a challenge,within which a key issue is our still incomplete understanding of the convective systems(CSs)responsible for such events.In this study,through use of an iterative rain-cell tracking algorithm,the macroscale characteristics(scale,intensity,duration,etc.)of the CSs that produced 595 short-term heavy precipitation events in Hunan Province,central China,are quantitatively analyzed,based on radar reflectivity,echo top,and rainfall observations at 1-km and 6-min intervals in April-September of 2016-2018.The results show that CSs present significant seasonal and diurnal features.Spring CSs usually cover a larger echo area with stronger convective cores and thus generate more precipitation than summer CSs,though sum-mer CSs develop more vigorously and frequently.CSs initiated at 1400-1600 local time are characterized by the strongest convection and a smaller spatiotemporal scale,causing violent and transient showers with typical areal pre-cipitation of 0.5-1 mm km-2,but less total precipitation.Further analyses of the relationships among the scale,intens-ity,duration,and total precipitation of CSs reveal that the convective intensity is linearly correlated to the spatiotem-poral scale of CSs,with the duration increasing on average by 0.0372 h dBZ-1;the echo area is significantly correl-ated to the total precipitation,and the duration and rainfall amount are connected with the area expansion rate(AER)of CSs:when the AER exceeds 50％,CSs expand rapidly with increasing total precipitation,but the duration is shorter.These findings provide a helpful reference for the forecasting of short-term heavy precipitation induced by CSs in central China.

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Cloud Microphysical Characteristics of Typhoon Meranti(2016)during Its Rapid Intensification:Model Validation and SST Sensitivity Experiments

Rui WANGYihong DUANJianing FENG

542-557页

查看更多>>摘要：Cloud microphysics plays an important role in determining the intensity and precipitation of tropical cyclones(TCs).In this study,a high-resolution numerical simulation by WRF(version 4.2)of Typhoon Meranti(2016)dur-ing its rapid intensification(RI)period was conducted and validated by multi-source observations including Cloud-Sat and Global Precipitation Mission satellite data.The snow and ice particles content were found to increase most rapidly compared with other hydrometeors during the RI process.Not all hydrometeors continued to increase.The graupel content only increased in the initial RI stage,and then decreased afterwards due to precipitation during the RI process.In addition,sea surface temperature(SST)sensitivity experiments showed that,although the intensity of the TC increased with a higher SST,not all hydrometeors increased.The graupel content continued to increase with the increase in SST,mainly due to the accumulation of more lower-temperature supercooled water vapor at the corres-ponding height.The content of snow decreased with the increase in SST because stronger vertical motion at the cor-responding height affected the aggregation of ice crystals.

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Time-Series Embeddings from Language Models:A Tool for Wind Direction Nowcasting

Décio ALVESFábio MENDON?ASheikh Shanawaz MOSTAFAFernando MORGADO-DIAS...

558-569页

查看更多>>摘要：Wind direction nowcasting is crucial in various sectors,particularly for ensuring aviation operations and safety.In this context,the TELMo(Time-series Embeddings from Language Models)model,a sophisticated deep learning ar-chitecture,has been introduced in this work for enhanced wind-direction nowcasting.Developed by using three years of data from multiple stations in the complex terrain of an international airport,TELMo incorporates the horizontal u(east-west)and v(north-south)wind components to significantly reduce forecasting errors.On a day with high wind direction variability,TELMo achieved mean absolute error values of 5.66 for 2-min,10.59 for 10-min,and 14.79 for 20-min forecasts,processed within a swift 9-ms/step timeframe.Standard degree-based analysis,in comparison,yiel-ded lower performance,emphasizing the effectiveness of the u and v components.In contrast,a Vanilla neural net-work,representing a shallow-learning approach,underperformed in all analyses,highlighting the superiority of deep learning methodologies in wind direction nowcasting.TELMo is an efficient model,capable of accurately forecast-ing wind direction for air traffic operations,with an error less than 20° in 97.49％of the predictions,aligning with re-commended international thresholds.This model design enables its applicability across various geographical loca-tions,making it a versatile tool in global aviation meteorology.

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