Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006-2021

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国家科技期刊平台
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外文摘要：As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia,the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)substantially influences weather and climate in this region.So far,systematic assessment on the per-formance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried out.Based on the Beijing Climate Centre(BCC)and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Pre-diction Project,this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal timescale.The results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the sea-sonal variations in the intensity,active days,and spatial distribution of NCCVs;however,the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the observations.Diagnostic analysis shows that the differ-ences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S models.Nonethe-less,in the deterministic forecasts,BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4-5(5-6)pentads,and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1-2 pentads longer than that of individual members.In the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities,BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days,respectively;both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events,with better performance in winter than in summer.The results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

外文关键词：

Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)predictabilitysub-seasonal to seasonal(S2S)predictiondeterm-inistic forecastprobabilistic forecast

作者：

Yiqiu YU、Jie WU、Yihe FANG、Chunyu ZHAO、Zongjian KE、Yitong LIN

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作者单位：

Liaoning Provincial Climate Centre,Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110166

Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research,China Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110166

Panjin National Climate Observatory,Panjin 124000

China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies,National Climate Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081

Jilin Provincial Climate Centre,Jilin Provincial Meteorological Administration,Changchun 130062

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基金：

Research Project of China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Institute of Atmospheric EnvironmentNational Key Research and Development Program of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaJoint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity ImprovementCMA Special Project for Innovative DevelopmentCMA Youth Innovation Team FundCMA Youth Innovation Team Fund

项目编号：

2021SYI AEKFMS112021YFA0718000421750524200503722NLTSY008CXFZ2022J008CMA2024QN06CMA2024QN05

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.1007/s13351-024-3169-z

气象学报(英文版)

中国气象学会

气象学报(英文版)

CSTPCD

影响因子：0.57

ISSN：0894-0525

年,卷(期)：2024.38(3)