查看更多>>摘要：This paper explores how learning from neighboring firms affects new exporters'product quality.It builds a Bayesian learning model to study how new exporters revise their prior beliefs about foreign customers'preferences for product quality from neighboring pioneering exporters.The model shows that a new exporter improves its product quality when it receives a positive quality-preference signal from its neighbors.The learning process of a firm depends on the number of neighbors,the level and heterogeneity of their export quality,and its own prior knowledge of the market.Highly disaggregated firm-product-country level transaction data provide robust evidence for this.The results also suggest that the impact of neighboring signals on a new exporter'quality can be channeled through the importation of high-quality intermediate inputs and more fixed investment.Learning effects are heterogeneous across firms and learning can influence other aspects of export performance.
查看更多>>摘要：In the context of China's efforts to establish a global network of free trade areas and diversify its export products,this study explores the impact of trade agreement depth on China's export diversification.Building upon a trade model with multiproduct firms,we discover that the effect of trade agreement depth on export diversification is multifaceted,depending on the relative magnitude of the"market expansion effect"and the"competition intensification effect."Through empirical analysis of China's exports to 132 countries(or regions)from 2000 to 2015,we find that the deepening of trade agreements affected China's export diversification negatively.This negative correlation was predominantly due to the similarity in comparative advantages betveen China and its trade partners,leading to the"competition intensification effect"overshadowing the"market expansion effect."We also note that"natural"agreements,when deepened,were more likely to affect China's export diversification adversely than their"non-natural"counterparts.Moreoven as export diversification increased,the marginal impact of deepening trade agreements exhibited an inverted U-shaped trajectory.
查看更多>>摘要：In this study,we expanded upon the current benchmark model of external adjustment and dissected the concept of international financial adjustment into two distinct components:valuation effect and investment income.Our enhanced model,which we refer to as"tri-channel model,"incorporates three key elements:trade balance,valuation effect,and investment income.Using a consolidated quarterly dataset that encompassed China s balance of payments and international investment positions from 1998 to 2020,we estimated the relative importance of the three newly introduced adjustment channels to Chinas cyclical external imbalance.We found that the trade balance channel played a major role,accounting for approximately 76 percent of cyclical external adjustment.The contribution of the investment income channel to cyclical external adjustment(21 percent)was much greater than that of the valuation effect channel(3 percent).These findings imply that policy responses to the cyclical external imbalance in China should focus more on the trade balance and investment incomes channels rather than exploiting the valuation effects.
查看更多>>摘要：This study examines the effectiveness of China's National Poor Counties(NPC)program,a decentralized anti-poverty initiative,by analyzing five rounds of individual-level panel data from 1988 to 2008.The impact of two waves of the NPC program(1994 and 2001)is evaluated utilizing a panel fixed-effects regression model.The results indicate substantial positive effects,with residents in NPC counties experiencing a 47percent income increase,3.1 percent higher employment rates,and a 5.7percent rise in household expenditure from 1988 to 2008,in comparison with non-NPC counties.Notably,the program benefited vulnerable populations,dispelling concerns about"elite capture."The study also reveals that evolving policy focus has played a pivotal role in sustaining the effects of the program over time.The 1994 round prioritized low-skilled employment,and the 2001 wave emphasized productivity enhancement through skills development.These findings highlight the continued efficacy of decentralized anti-poverty efforts.
查看更多>>摘要：Policymakers in China have attempted to improve the quality of rural education by investing in teacher salaries through initiatives like the Rural Teachers Support Plan(RTSP).This study estimates the effects of teacher salary increase on students'educational outcomes in rural China by utilizing the exogenous variations of rural teacher salaries induced by the RTSP.It employs an intensity-based difference-in-differences strategy and panel data from 2010 to 2018 with 3,351 rural children.The findings reveal that an increase in teacher salaries had a significant positive impact on students'examination results.Moreover,the results of mechanism analysis indicate that salary increases could have both quality and quantity effects on students'outcomes by increasing the proportion of highly educated teachers and reducing the student-teacher ratio.Our findings contribute to the discussion on the importance of teacher salary incentives in education production functions and provide insights for other countries undertaking rural education reforms.
查看更多>>摘要：This study examines the impact of the digital revolution on the job quality of workers with a specific focus on those at the lowest end of the spectrum in China'domestic labor market.Leveraging exogenous timing variations that result from the implementation of the Broadband China Program across different cities,it provides quasi-experimental evidence concerning the effects of the digital revolution on the job quality of lower class workers,particularly rural-urban migrant workers.Using data from China Migrants Dynamic Survey,this study reveals that migrants'comprehensive job quality index increased by 0.0138(5.33 percent),and its component indices experienced positive effects after the Broadband China Program was implemented.This study also investigates heterogeneous policy treatment effects among workers with diverse demographic and occupational characteristics.Underlying mechanisms are considered,including positive macroeconomic shocks,increased social interactions,and Internet use.In particular,migrants'attitudes toward local settlement became more positive,suggesting that the positive effects of the digital revolution on livelihood lasted for some time.Taking China as an example,this study contributes valuable empirical evidence of how the digital revolution can affect lower class workers'employment or living conditions in a developing country.Related policy implications are also considered.
查看更多>>摘要：Using panel data from 2012 to 2020for publicly traded Chinese companies,we explored the efficacy in mitigation of tax information asymmetry to combat profit shifting and transnational tax avoidance.Our empirical analysis revealed that,after the implementation of the inaugural multilateral automatic information exchange system known as the Common Reporting Standard,there was a statistically significantly increase in the effective tax rate by 1.4 percentage points,accompanied by an increase in instances of tax compliance.These trends were discernibly associated with a reduction in profit shifting and notable changes in reported profit margins,particularly influenced by actions related to debt shifting and strategic management of intellectual property assets.These findings underscore the strong connection between these effects and various factors such as investment destinations,asset portfolios,and industry classifications.The results imply a prospective decline in the incidence of cross-border tax avoidance by Chinese multinational entities and demonstrate the potential of emerging international tax cooperation frameworks for curbing the global tax avoidance practices of multinational corporations.
查看更多>>摘要：Decentralization can alter the incentive structure of local governments and one outcome of this is debt accumulation.Based on the"Province-Managing-County"pilot policy,a fiscal decentralization reform devolving fiscal power from the prefecture-level city to the county level,we assess the impact offiscal decentralization on local government debt using a difference-in-differences model with a unique county-level dataset from 2011 to 2019.According to the study findings,the"Province-Managing-County"reform resulted in an average increase of 5.758 percent in the local government debt ratio across the pilot counties.Mechanism analyses suggest that this may have arisen from changes in the incentive structure,including external pressures from government assessments and internal developmental needs for promotion,leading to a rise in expenditure pressures on local governments.The role of supervision in mitigating the impact offiscal decentralization on debt growth was also demonstrated,indicating that an appropriate supervision mechanism must be in place in conjunction with a decentralization policy.
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