国土空间碳排放时空演变特征分析——以南京都市圈为例

Analysis of spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of national carbon emissions——Taking Nanjing Metropolitan Area as an example

徐雪霏 ¹戚云丽 ²陈红 ¹张振国 ¹肖新³

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作者信息

1. 安徽科技学院资源与环境学院,安徽凤阳 233100
2. 南京达农生态景观规划设计研究院有限公司,江苏南京 210000
3. 安徽科技学院资源与环境学院,安徽凤阳 233100;安庆师范大学资源与环境学院,安徽安庆 246133
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摘要

目的:探究南京都市圈国土空间碳排放效应时空演变特征,分析南京都市圈国土空间所承载的碳排放,寻求合理碳减排途径.方法:采用GIS分析技术、国土空间转移矩阵和碳排放流动模型,探究南京都市圈国土空间碳排放效应时空演变特征.结果:2005-2020年,南京都市圈各国土空间类型间相互转化面积达3 484.79 km2,其中农业空间净减少2 561.51 km2,城镇空间净增加2 586.47 km2.研究期内,净碳排放量由7.526 34×107 t增长到1.538 615×108 t,年均增长率为6.96％;能源消费碳排放量增长3.685 95×107 t,工业生产碳排放量增长4.206 59×107 t.2005-2010、2010-2015及2015-2020年期间,国土空间类型变化导致的碳流动量分别为-2.269 07×107 t、-1.048 24×107 t、-8.111 5×106 t.结论:2005-2020 年南京都市圈国土空间结构变化明显,耕地保护的形势严峻,城镇化水平显著提升.2005-2020年净碳排放量呈持续增长趋势,能源消费碳排放和工业生产碳排放为南京都市圈最大碳源.南京、镇江、马鞍山的碳排放量占南京都市圈的57.17％以上,芜湖、扬州的碳排放量涨幅显著,分别增长241.17％和119.55％.碳排放量最小的是宣城市,其次是滁州市,两市碳汇量占研究区总体的62.52％.3个时期内的消极碳流动量远大于积极碳流动量,消极碳流动主要源于农业空间向城镇空间的转化,说明城镇空间的扩张蚕食大量农业空间.

Abstract

Objective:To explore the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of territorial space carbon emissions in of Nanjing metropolitan area,analyze the carbon emissions carried by territorial space space of Nanjing metropolitan area,and seek reasonable ways to reduce carbon emissions.Methods:Using GIS analysis technology,the territorial space transition matrix and carbon emission flow model were adopted.Results:During 2005-2020,the area of mutual transformation of land space reached 3 484.79 km2,including 2 561.51 km2 of agricultural space and 2 586.47 km2 of urban space.During the research period,net carbon emissions increased from 7.527×107 tons to 1.539×107 tons,with an average annual growth rate of 6.96％,energy consumption carbon emissions increased by 3.686×107 tons,and industrial production carbon emissions increased by 4.207 ×107 tons.During 2005-2010,2010-2015,and 2015-2020,the carbon flow caused by changes in territorial space type was-2.269 × 107 tons,-1.048×107 tons and-8.112×106 tons respectively.Conclusion:From 2005 to 2020,the structure of territorial space in Nanjing metropolitan area changed significantly,with a severe situation of farmland protection and a significant increase in the level of urbanization.From 2005 to 2020,net carbon emissions gradually increased,with energy consumption and industrial production being the largest carbon sources in Nanjing metropolitan area.The carbon emissions of Nanjing,Zhenjiang and Ma'anshan accounted for more than 57.17％of that of Nanjing metropolitan area,while the carbon emissions of Wuhu and Yangzhou increased significantly by 241.17％and 119.55％.Xuancheng had the smallest carbon emissions,followed by Chuzhou,accounting for 62.52％of the total carbon sink in the study area.The amount of negative carbon flow in the three periods is much larger than the momentum of positive carbon flow.The negative carbon flow mainly stems from the transformation from agricultural space to urban space,indicating that the expansion of urban space erodes a large amount of agricultural space.

关键词

国土空间/碳排放/碳流动模型/转移矩阵/南京都市圈

Key words

Territorial space/Carbon emissions/Carbon flow model/Transfer matrix/Nanjing metropolitan area

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基金项目

国家重点实验室开放基金(SKLLQG1845)

出版年

2024

安徽科技学院学报

安徽科技学院

安徽科技学院学报

影响因子：0.434

ISSN：1673-8772

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