Spatiotemporal Evolution of Grain Production in the Anhui Section of the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt and Its Driving Forces
Optimizing grain production pattern in the Huaihe River Basin,one of the three major commodity grain production bases in China,is of utmost significance for ensuring China's grain security.Based on the comparative advantage theory,this paper measures the advantages of grain production in 50 districts and counties in Anhui section of the Huaihe River ecological economic belt from 2006 to 2020,and analyzes the spatial and temporal differentiation as well as its influencing factors with ESDA model and Geodetector.The results show that:the advantageous areas of rice are mostly scale-oriented.The production areas of wheat and corn generally have comprehensively comparative advantages and are gradually distributed to the north of Huaihe River.Some advantageous areas of beans have become disadvantageous ones due to the reduction of planting area.The spatial aggregation of the comparative advantage index of rice and wheat is relatively stable;the distribution of high-value aggregation areas of maize has changed from"double core"to"belt"shape,while that of its rival,legume,is just the opposite.The regional advantages of grain production in early stage are greatly affected by irrigation.The influence of annual precipitation and total water resources has increased year by year, indicating that the matching between grain production layout and natural resource conditions has improved.The annually decreasing influence of disposable income means that the income of farmers in the advantageous areas of grain production is low,and the degree of"decoupling"between grain production and farmers' disposable income is intensified.
food cropscomparative advantageregional layoutHuaihe River ecological economic beltGeodetector