农户最低收购价预期与种植结构调整——来自农业生产性投资的调节检验

Farmers'Expectation of Minimum Purchase Price and the Adjustment of Planting Structure:A Regulatory Effect Test from Agricultural Productive Investment

王全忠 ¹彭长生 ¹钟钰²

扫码查看

作者信息

1. 安庆师范大学经济与管理学院,安徽安庆 246011
2. 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081
折叠

摘要

使用2018年湘、赣、苏三省水稻主产区农户调查数据,研究农户最低收购价预期对种植结构调整的作用机制及农业生产性投资的调节效应.实证结果显示,农户预期最低收购价下降对种植结构变化、调模式行为有显著正向影响,且预期降幅超线对调模式行为的影响更显著,表明最低收购价政策变化传递出较明显的种植结构调整效应.农户预期最低收购价下降、预期降幅超线和专用型设备投资对调面积行为的影响显著为负,且专用型设备投资与预期降幅超线交互项对调面积行为的负向作用更显著.这种负向调节效应源于农户专用型设备投资收益回报机制对水稻种植规模的"锚定"效应,使得专用型设备投资对农户面积减少行为有较大的延迟作用.未来种植结构调整应引导低端农产品向优质、品牌化转型,稳定农户生产性投资收益回报率预期,探索分类引导不同规模农户种植结构调整的政策.

Abstract

Using data from the 2018 survey of farmers in the main rice-producing areas of Hunan,Jiangxi,and Jiangsu provinces,this paper studies the role of farmers'expectations of minimum purchase price (MPP)in the adjustment of planting structure and its moderating effects on agricultural productive investment.The empirical results show that farmers'expectation of MPP had significant positive effect on the planting structure change and the adjustment mode,and the expected decline beyond the line has a more significant impact on the adjustment mode,which indicates that the change of MPP policy would exert a relatively obvious effect on planting structure adjustment.The farmers'expectation of MPP,the expected decline beyond the line and the special equipment investment have significantly negative effects on the reducing of planting area,and the interaction between the special equipment investment and the expected decline beyond the line has a more significant negative effect on the reducing of planting area.This negative adjustment effect stems from the anchor effect of the return mechanism of special equipment investment on planting scale,which makes a greater delay effect of the special equipment investment on the reduction of planting area.Given the current target of China's planting structure adjustment,we should strengthen the guidance of the transformation from low-end produce to high-quality and branded agricultural products in the future,stabilize the expected rate of return for farmers'productive investment,and explore policies to guide the planting structure adjustment according to the scale of the rural household.

关键词

最低收购价/生产性投资/种植结构调整

Key words

minimum purchase price/agricultural productive investment/adjustment of planting structure

引用本文复制引用

基金项目

国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA056)

安徽省高等学校优秀青年人才支持计划一般项目(gxyq2022031)

出版年

2024

安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版)

安徽农业大学

安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版)

CHSSCD

影响因子：0.423

ISSN：1009-2463

参考文献量24

段落导航