Farmers'Expectation of Minimum Purchase Price and the Adjustment of Planting Structure:A Regulatory Effect Test from Agricultural Productive Investment
Using data from the 2018 survey of farmers in the main rice-producing areas of Hunan,Jiangxi,and Jiangsu provinces,this paper studies the role of farmers'expectations of minimum purchase price (MPP)in the adjustment of planting structure and its moderating effects on agricultural productive investment.The empirical results show that farmers'expectation of MPP had significant positive effect on the planting structure change and the adjustment mode,and the expected decline beyond the line has a more significant impact on the adjustment mode,which indicates that the change of MPP policy would exert a relatively obvious effect on planting structure adjustment.The farmers'expectation of MPP,the expected decline beyond the line and the special equipment investment have significantly negative effects on the reducing of planting area,and the interaction between the special equipment investment and the expected decline beyond the line has a more significant negative effect on the reducing of planting area.This negative adjustment effect stems from the anchor effect of the return mechanism of special equipment investment on planting scale,which makes a greater delay effect of the special equipment investment on the reduction of planting area.Given the current target of China's planting structure adjustment,we should strengthen the guidance of the transformation from low-end produce to high-quality and branded agricultural products in the future,stabilize the expected rate of return for farmers'productive investment,and explore policies to guide the planting structure adjustment according to the scale of the rural household.
minimum purchase priceagricultural productive investmentadjustment of planting structure
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