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生计资本、生计风险与农户分化中的风险管理

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在乡村振兴背景下,分析农户分化中的风险管理逻辑,提出农户生计资本及其面临的风险对农户分化的风险选择影响的分析框架,并基于CFPS数据库2012—2020年27030个农户样本的非平衡面板数据,采用双栏模型估计和系统广义矩估计(GMM)进行实证检验.研究发现:由于我国农户的农业经营总体上未能达到规模化要求,当前自然资本提高对农户分化风险度存在负向影响;物质资本、金融资本与社会资本的增加能够直接提高农户的抗风险能力,对当前农户分化风险度上升发挥正向作用;人力资本提高对当前农户分化风险度发挥着"催化剂"作用,但不会使农户分化风险度持续上升.此外,农户面临的生计风险对农户分化的风险选择影响存在两种路径,一是由于农户弥补损失的"反射效应",非系统性生计风险提高会使农户分化风险度上升,二是由于农户面对更复杂的生计决策和更多的信息处理成本,系统性生计风险上升会使农户分化风险度下降.
Livelihood Capital,Livelihood Risk and Risk Management in Rural Household Differentiation
Under the background of rural revitalization,this paper analyzes the logic of risk management in rural household differentiation,puts forward an analytical framework of the influence of farmers'livelihood capital and the risks it faces on the risk selection of rural household differentiation,and makes an empirical test based on the unbalanced panel data of 27,030 farmers'samples in CFPS database from 2012 to 2020 by using double-hurdle model estimation and system generalized moment estimation (GMM).The relevant conclusions are as follows. (1)Since the agricultural management of farmers in our country has not reached the scale requirements on the whole,the current increase in natural capital has a negative impact on the risk degree of rural household differentiation;the increase of material capital,financial capital,and social capital can directly enhance the risk resistance capacity of farmers,which has a positive effect;the increase of human capital plays a catalytic role in the current risk of rural household differentiation,but it will not continue to increase the risk degree.(2)There are two ways in which the livelihood risks faced by farmers have an impact on the risk degree of rural household differentiation.Firstly,due to the"reflection effect"of farmers compensation for losses,an increase in non-systematic livelihood risks will increase the risk degree.Secondly,due to more complex livelihood decisions and more information processing costs faced by farmers,an increase in systematic livelihood risks will decrease the risk degree.

livelihood risklivelihood capitalrural household differentiationrisk preferencedouble-hurdle model

马志雄、丁士军

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广东财经大学 经济学院,广东 广州 510320

中南财经政法大学 工商管理学院,湖北 武汉 430073

生计风险 生计资本 农户分化 风险偏好 双栏模型

广东省哲学社会科学规划一般项目

GD24CLJ01

2024

安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版)
安徽农业大学

安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版)

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.423
ISSN:1009-2463
年,卷(期):2024.33(4)