With the government's promotion of scaled agricultural operation,land rent has increased rapidly in the past ten years,which has led farmers to an expectation of land rent increase,thus affecting the land transfer behaviour.This study establishes a model of farmers'expectation of land transfer,empirically examines the impact of agricultural operators'expectation of land rent increase on their land outflow behaviour by using four-year survey data from Shandong and Anhui provinces.On this basis,the necessity of the withdrawal of demand-pull scaled operation policy is discussed.The study reveals that the expectation of land rent increase has a significant negative effect on the land outflow behaviour of agricultural operators,and this effect is robust to modelling.Individuals with relatively low supply elasticities,such as farmers with larger land operation scales,senior farmers and young farmers,are less susceptible to land rent expectations.The agricultural operators'expectation of land price increase is the result of a series of policy and economic variables related to land transfer,among which the villagers'incentives for scaled operation and the highest land rent,i.e.,the local landmark agricultural transfer program,should be the most central one.Due to the industrial-agricultural linkage,the demand-pull scaled agricultural operation policy will lead to a continuous decline of agricultural and industrial competitiveness.Therefore,it is suggested that:(1)agricultural subsidies should be re-examined and changed from price support to direct subsidies;(2)grain market prices should be stabilized to temper the expectation of the land rent market;(3)the implementation of excessively large-scale land transfer projects should be avoided;the endogenous development path of the agricultural business model should be adhered to,and an endogenous system of cultivation of core farmers should be constructed.
关键词
地租上涨预期/土地流出/规模经营奖补/需求拉动型农业规模经营政策
Key words
land rent increase expectation/land outflow/incentives and subsidies for scaled operation/demand-pull scaled agricultural operation policy
万方数据