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基于演化博弈的农村合作型普惠金融风险治理研究

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运用演化博弈的分析方法对我国农村合作型普惠金融的风险治理问题进行研究,结果发现,借贷个体在与合作型普惠金融组织的博弈过程中并不总是选择"履约"策略,在人口快速流动和市场化加快发展的现代乡土社会,借贷个体选择"违约"的概率增大.而在合作型普惠金融组织与监管主体之间的演化博弈过程中,积极监管、规范运营的演化稳定策略也仅仅是一种理想状态,合作型普惠金融组织违规运营和监管方消极监管构成合作型普惠金融的重要风险来源.据此,应加快建立"借贷个体—合作型普惠金融组织—监管主体""三位一体"的合作型普惠金融风险治理体系,通过构建借贷个体稳定"履约"的长效机制、强化合作型普惠金融组织规范运营的内在认同、优化创新"积极监管"合作型普惠金融发展的方式共同推动农村合作型普惠金融迈入良性发展轨道.
Research on the Risk Governance of Rural Cooperative Inclusive Finance Based on Evolutionary Game Theory
Adopting the analysis method from evolutionary game theory,this study investigates the risk governance of rural cooperative inclusive finance in China.The results show that borrowing individuals do not always choose the"compliance"strategy in the game process with cooperative inclusive finance organizations.In the modern rural society characterized by greater population mobility and accelerating marketization,the probability of borrowing individuals choosing"default"increases.In the evolutionary game process between cooperative inclusive finance organizations and their regulators,the evolutionary stability strategy of active regulation and standardized operation is only an ideal state.The irregular operation of cooperative inclusive finance organizations and the inertia of regulators constitute major sources of risk for cooperative inclusive finance.Therefore,it is imperative to establish a"three-in-one"risk governance system for rural cooperative inclusive finance encompassing"borrowing individuals—cooperative inclusive finance organizations—regulatory bodies."By constructing a long-term mechanism for stable"compliance"of individual borrowers,strengthening the internal recognition of"standardized operation"of cooperative inclusive finance organizations,and innovating the development of cooperative inclusive finance through active regulation,we can jointly promote the healthy development of rural cooperative inclusive finance.

cooperative inclusive financerisk governanceevolutionary gameregulators

王丽程、郑棣、周宇晗

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四川省社会科学院区域经济研究所,四川成都 610072

电子科技大学马克思主义学院,四川成都 611731

合作型普惠金融 风险治理 演化博弈 监管主体

2024

安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版)
安徽农业大学

安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版)

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.423
ISSN:1009-2463
年,卷(期):2024.33(6)