首页|南京市花粉浓度变化规律及预报方法研究

南京市花粉浓度变化规律及预报方法研究

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在花粉观测和气象观测资料的基础上,分析了南京地区花粉季节变化规律和日变化规律,以及南京地区不同种类花粉的季节分布特点,发现南京地区花粉分布呈单峰型分布,具有很强的周期性和季节性.3月中旬起,花粉数量迅速增多,到4月中旬达到顶峰,此后缓慢下降,但起伏较大.同时,根据同期气象条件分析了气象因子(温度、湿度、降水、风速)对花粉浓度的影响.建立了花粉浓度预报方程:Y=0.703 X1+0.005X2+0.005X3+0.452.其中,Y为花粉浓度预报值;X1为前一日花粉实况;X2为气压差;X3为温度差.
Study on Pollen Concentration Change Rule and Forecast Method in Nanjing City
Based on the pollen observation and weather data, the pollen season and day change rules and seasonal distribution characteristic of different spices pollen in Nanjing region were analyzed. The results showed that the pollen was distributed in a single apex with distinctive periodical and seasonal characteristics in Nanjing. And the pollen increased rapidly since mid-March and reached the peak in mid-April, but then decreased slowly with big fluctuations. Weather factors of the same period, such as temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed were studied to examine their influences on the pollen concentration change. Pollen concentration forecast equation was set up: Y = 0.703 X1 +0.005 X2 + 0.005 X3 + 0.452. In the equation, Y was the pollen concentration forecast value, X1 was the actual value of pollen of the previous day. X1 was the air pressure difference. X3, was the temperature difference.

Nanjing cityPollenChange rulesInfluence factorsConcentration forecast

魏建苏、刘梅、顾亚进、张军、张静

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江苏省气象台,江苏南京,210008

江苏省南京市气象局,江苏南京,210008

南京市 花粉 变化规律 影响因子 浓度预报

中国气象局推广项目

GMATG2008M29

2008

安徽农业科学
安徽省农业科学院

安徽农业科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.413
ISSN:0517-6611
年,卷(期):2008.36(22)
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